The betting markets moved first. Caesars Sportsbook opened UNLV's win total at 8.5 this spring, the highest number for the program in at least two decades. Now ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) has followed—and raised the bar even higher.
According to FPI, UNLV is projected to win 9.7 games this season, with a 97.9% chance to make a bowl, a 37.7% shot at winning the Mountain West, and a legitimately surprising 21.3% chance to make the College Football Playoff.
Yes, that College Football Playoff.
UNLV Cracks the National Top 50
The model ranks UNLV No. 42 nationally, just behind Boise State (No. 40) and well ahead of every other Mountain West program. Fresno State (1.5%), San Jose State (1.5%), and Colorado State (1.3%) are technically alive in the playoff race—but barely. UNLV and Boise are the only two teams from the league in the national conversation. Again.
Highest Projected Win Total in the Mountain West
UNLV's 9.7–2.9 projection is the highest in the conference, even higher than Boise State's, thanks in part to a favorable schedule. ESPN's model doesn't care that the Rebels have a new coach or that the quarterback battle is still unsettled. It sees talent, depth, and opportunity.
It also sees a team that won 11 games last year, returned major pieces in the trenches, and brought in the Mountain West's top transfer class. In short: the model buys what Dan Mullen is building.
Mountain West Title Odds: Two-Team Race
The title odds reflect what most of us already know—it's a two-horse race. Boise State (45.6%) and UNLV (37.7%) dwarf the rest of the league in probability. No one else clears 5%. These two teams met in the last two title games. They're expected to meet again. And if they do, Boise would host due to the head-to-head tiebreaker.
A 21.3% Chance at the CFP
This is where things get surreal. ESPN's model gives UNLV a 21.3% chance to reach the College Football Playoff—ahead of USC (21.0%), Washington (8.1%), Utah (3.7%), Arizona (0.5%), Stanford (0.5%), and Cal (2.1%).
Boise State is slightly higher at 25.2%, but that's it. No other Mountain West team even breaks 2%. It would take a special season for either school to break through—but in an expanded playoff, the door is cracked open. Beat UCLA in Week 2, run through the Mountain West, win the title, and you're at worst in the conversation.
Final Word
The numbers back it up. The win total, the FPI projections, the playoff odds—they're all pointing toward something UNLV fans haven’t been able to say in a long time: this program is in the national picture.
Whether the Rebels hit 9 wins, 10, or crash back down to earth remains to be seen. But the models are in. The math is done. And for the first time in decades, UNLV is being taken seriously.
The pressure is real. But so is the moment.