Will Dan Mullen Still Be at UNLV in 2026?

Every year, there’s a name that hijacks the coaching carousel, and this fall, it’s Dan Mullen.
The same coach who, less than two years ago, was drawing plays on ESPN touchscreens is now sitting at 6-0 in Las Vegas, running one of the most balanced, creative, and disciplined teams in college football.

The irony? The more he wins, the less likely he is to leave.

Because when you break down each rumored job, Penn State, Virginia Tech, UCLA, and Arkansas, the picture sharpens: they need Mullen more than Mullen needs them.

This one caught fire the second Sports Illustrated hit publish. James Franklin’s firing after a 3–3 start sent shockwaves through the sport, not just because of the $50 million buyout, but because Penn State fans are addicted to the idea of a savior with roots. And yes, Mullen checks the boxes on paper.

Pennsylvania native. Offensive innovator. Proven rebuilder. Polished media presence.
The Nittany Lions see a clean restart with a coach who’s been to the top and won’t flinch in the Playoff race.

But here’s the problem: Mullen’s been through this song and dance before. He knows what it looks like when a fan base builds a myth around “the one who fixes everything.”

That wasn’t just empathy; it was experience talking. The man has lived in the SEC furnace. He knows what happens when the message board crowd turns, when boosters stop nodding, when “next year” becomes a curse.

Penn State’s brass will make the call, no doubt. They’ll point to Mullen’s resume, .700 career win percentage, New Year’s Six pedigree, Heisman-caliber quarterbacks, and they’ll try to sell a “come home” narrative. But the numbers don’t add up.

UNLV is paying him $3.5 million per year, with a $7 million buyout through December 2025. To pry him away, Penn State would need to double his base to $7-10 million and swallow the buyout, putting the total cost north of $14 million in year one. Add staff pools, recruiting budgets, and a rebuild roster? You’re at $20 million before you even hit spring ball. Top that with Franklins 49 million dollar buyout, it just seems unlikely.

They can afford it. But the real question is whether Mullen wants to walk into another fix-it job with zero control of the noise. In Vegas, he controls everything: the staff, the message, even the vibe.

Penn State wants the man who built Mississippi State into a national story. Vegas already has him and is letting him write his own sequel.

This rumor started in USA TODAY when Blake Toppmeyer cracked the perfect joke: “Blacksburg, Virginia, is the Starkville of Appalachia.”
It was supposed to be funny. It ended up being prophetic.

Virginia Tech is every bit the program Mississippi State was when Mullen arrived in 2009: proud, rural, resource-limited, and desperate for structure. Brent Pry’s firing after a 0-3 start was predictable, but the Hokies’ deeper problem runs higher up: Whit Babcock’s budget.

The Hokies’ athletic director made it clear this summer that the department was running lean. That’s a problem if your pitch to an SEC-tested coach involves the words “we’ll figure it out.”

That line says everything about where his head is. Mullen’s not a quick-fix mercenary. He’s a builder who’s finally working at a place that lets him build without interference. And unlike Virginia Tech, UNLV’s administration isn’t asking him to squeeze wins out of half budgets and nostalgia.

If you’re Mullen, the calculus is simple.

Stay in Vegas: you keep autonomy, NIL support, and an indoor facility with an NFL locker room.
Go to Virginia Tech: you inherit a broken donor base, a skeptical fanbase, and a roster that hasn’t been relevant since the Beamer days.

Even if you match salary, you can’t match the situation. And in 2025, that matters more than logos.

That quote is the entire reason he won’t go. He’s already got a program trending upward. Why reset that timeline for nostalgia’s sake?

If the Penn State rumor was emotional, the UCLA one was lazy. The logic was simple: Mullen beat them at the Rose Bowl, DeShaun Foster got fired the next day, and the Bruins need credibility with their next hire.

But “need” doesn’t equal “fit.”

The reality is ugly. UCLA’s athletic department is more than $30 million in debt, juggling Big Ten travel costs, and playing in a half-empty stadium 30 miles from campus. They’ve already cycled through Chip Kelly and Foster in two years. The boosters are tired. The AD, Martin Jarmond, is under pressure to “make a splash,” which is why his search leaks feel more like PR than pursuit.

On paper, Mullen would be the splash. He’s got name value, media polish, and that SEC credential the Bruins crave. But look closer at what he already has: an NFL stadium, national recruiting reach, and a Power Four-style contract just without the bureaucracy.

He didn’t need to say it twice. UNLV’s administration built Mullen’s deal with schools like UCLA in mind. His salary structure (base + media compensation) mirrors a Power Four model. His $7 million buyout was designed to block exactly this kind of raid. And he’s thriving in a city where attention fuels recruiting instead of distracting from it.

Meanwhile, UCLA just fired its second head coach in 18 months and is trying to convince alumni that the Big Ten travel schedule is a “competitive advantage.” Good luck selling that to a coach who’s spent the last year teaching players how to balance football with actual joy.

That’s not a quote you give if you’re about to jump into Westwood’s chaos. That’s the quote of a man who’s already got a culture and doesn’t plan to trade it for debt and a parking nightmare.

Every time an SEC job opens, Mullen’s name gets recycled like an old headline.
“SEC pedigree.” “Offensive mastermind.” “Can fix any program.”

But Arkansas isn’t a fit - it’s a mirage.

The Razorbacks have resources, sure. But they also have one of the most volatile booster networks in college football. They just bought out Sam Pittman, and their NIL collectives are splintered between old-guard donors and new-money investors. They’re a Power Four program on paper, but inside the building, it’s dysfunction masked by nostalgia.

And this isn’t 2014. Mullen doesn’t need to prove he can win in the SEC anymore. He already did that at Mississippi State when he took the smallest brand in the league to No. 1 in the country, produced a Heisman finalist, and won games no one else could’ve. Then he did it again at Florida, where he led the Gators to three straight New Year’s Six bowls and an SEC East title before the Gainesville machine inevitably ate itself.

He’s not signing up for that again.

That’s a coach in control of his program.

At Arkansas, control is a myth. Every donor wants to call plays, every booster thinks they’re on staff, and every local radio host thinks they know how to fix the offense. Mullen’s had enough of that for one lifetime.

Arkansas could throw money, like they always do, but even that won’t close the gap. UNLV’s total package is already in the same neighborhood: salary, staff budget, and facilities all stack up favorably against mid-tier SEC programs. What Vegas offers that Fayetteville can’t is quality of life.

That might sound like coachspeak. It isn’t. It’s a man who’s rediscovered the part of coaching that doesn’t feel like surviving.

If you zoom out, the numbers and the quotes tell the same story. UNLV isn’t a stopover, it’s a platform. The $3.5 million salary, $7 million buyout, NFL-caliber facility, and Vegas NIL ecosystem make it a better gig than half the Power Four jobs out there. Mullen knows it. The market knows it.

The national media is finally catching up.

Sports Illustrated called him “one of the surprises of 2025.” USA Today said, “Virginia Tech needs him more than he needs them.” The Review-Journal quoted him saying, “I don’t know if I have 15 years left in me, but I’ll still be here next year.”

And the truth is simple: if UNLV wins the Mountain West, goes 12-0, and makes the Playoff, he’s gone. That’s the business. Someone will call with $15 million and a chance to coach for a title.

But if they fall short, even 11-1, even a New Year’s Six…he stays. Because the next step isn’t escape; it’s establishment. And right now, Mullen’s building something that looks like Boise State 2.0 with better weather, bigger checks, and a skyline instead of mountains.

He meant it.

The rumors will keep coming. They always do. But the reality is that Dan Mullen has leverage he’s never had before, financial, cultural, and emotional. He’s in a city that rewards innovation and forgives nothing less than authenticity. That fits him perfectly.

So when you see his name on another hot board, remember the line that actually matters:

And until proven otherwise, that’s exactly what Vegas should believe.