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The latest national preview is in — and UNLV isn’t sneaking up on anyone anymore.
In its 2025 Mountain West forecast, Athlon Sports projects UNLV to finish second in the league behind Boise State, once again setting the stage for a potential title game rematch. Despite massive roster turnover, a coaching change, and the fewest returning starters in the conference, Athlon still pegs the Rebels as the top challenger to the reigning champs.
That’s not blind optimism. It’s belief in Dan Mullen, and belief in the pieces UNLV just put together.
Building on Back-to-Back Title Game Runs
Barry Odom guided UNLV to 20 wins and two Mountain West title game appearances in just two seasons. When he left for Purdue this offseason, the move could’ve stalled the program’s rise. Instead, UNLV made a nationally respected hire in Dan Mullen, the former Florida and Mississippi State head coach known for explosive offenses and sharp quarterback development.
Athlon is betting on Mullen’s track record and system to translate immediately in Las Vegas. The Rebels return just two starters — one on offense, one on defense — but they’ve reloaded through the portal and recruiting trail like never before.
Why Athlon Believes
The case for UNLV starts with running back Jai’Den Thomas, who returns after racking up 918 yards and 12 touchdowns last fall. He’ll be the anchor of an offense built around tempo, misdirection, and dual-threat quarterback play.
The QB competition features two high-profile transfers: Anthony Colandrea (Virginia) and Alex Orji (Michigan). Both bring elite athleticism and high-upside tools, and both fit Mullen’s track record of mobile, efficient passers. Meanwhile, every spot on the offensive line and receiving corps has been restocked through the portal, including potential starters from Power 5 programs.
Defensively, linebacker Marsel McDuffie is the only holdover from a unit that led the conference in scoring defense (21.3 ppg allowed) in 2024. But UNLV brought in experienced reinforcements at every level: Jalen Lee (LSU) up front, Jake Pope (Georgia) in the secondary, and Denver Harris (UTSA) to shore up the corners.
It’s not just a new roster — it’s a brand-new, battle-tested two-deep built for immediate contention.
Still Chasing Boise
Athlon has Boise State ranked No. 1, and that makes sense. The Broncos return six defensive starters and have arguably the best offensive line in the league. Quarterback Maddux Madsen is back after a breakout 2024, and former Fresno State back Malik Sherrod joins to help replace Ashton Jeanty. Boise’s front seven is loaded, and they host UNLV in October.
But the Rebels have closed the gap — and fast. With top-ranked recruiting classes (No. 1 transfer, No. 2 overall in the MWC), a program-defining head coach, and a schedule that includes key home games against UCLA and San Jose State, the margin between Boise and UNLV is shrinking by the week.
The National View Is Shifting
This Athlon projection follows a national trend. UNLV opened at 8.5 wins at Caesars, the highest preseason total in school history. ESPN’s FPI currently gives the Rebels a 97.9% chance to make a bowl, 37.7% chance to win the Mountain West, and a 21.3% chance to make the College Football Playoff — absurd numbers for a program that hadn’t posted back-to-back winning seasons in over two decades.
Now comes the hard part: living up to the hype.
But if you’ve been following The Scarlet Standard, this projection isn’t news — it’s confirmation.
UNLV has arrived. Athlon Sports just put it in print.