The Mountain West has spent two months creating one of the nation’s most congested conference races, and the final two weeks offer no promise of clarity. Six teams remain firmly in the hunt for a championship berth, and the gap between first place and seventh is narrower than at any point in recent memory.

UNLV finds itself positioned squarely in the middle of the chaos.

The Rebels enter Week 13 at 4-2 in conference play and 8-2 overall, with a pivotal Friday night matchup against Hawai‘i before closing the regular season at UNR. Win both, finish 6-2, and UNLV will remain on the top tier of the standings. Whether that record is enough to secure a spot in the Mountain West Championship Game is where math, scheduling oddities, and the league’s revamped tiebreak system collide.

The question is simple: if UNLV wins out, do the Rebels play for a title?
The answer is anything but.

The Mountain West overhauled its tiebreak procedures last offseason, and the ripple effects are shaping this year’s race.

The league now relies on:

Because the conference plays an unbalanced slate, several top contenders did not meet this season. As a result, many potential ties involving UNLV skip directly to the computer formulas.

That creates an important distinction: UNLV’s losses to Boise State and New Mexico matter only in pure two-team ties. In three-team ties with either program, head-to-head does not eliminate the Rebels. The system isn’t intuitive, but it’s central to understanding the path ahead.

Once Friday night ends, Hawai‘i can no longer reach 6-2 if it loses to UNLV, and Utah State (3-3) is capped at 5-3. That leaves four programs besides the Rebels that can finish 6-2:

Each carries a different level of danger or opportunity for UNLV.

There are also two straightforward lanes where a 6–2 finish sends UNLV to the title game with little debate.

The first is simple: They are the only team to finish 6-2.
If the Rebels win out and are the only team with a 6-2 record, the path has cleared for them to be the second-place seed and play in the MW Championship.

The second path is a two-team tie with SDSU or Fresno State.
UNLV didn’t play either team this season, which means head-to-head doesn’t apply. In such situations, the league relies on rankings and computer metrics to determine the representative. With a 10-2 overall resume, UNLV would be well-positioned against both.

These are the most favorable scenarios for the Rebels and the ones most likely to produce a clear, uncomplicated path into the championship game.

UNLV’s margin tightens considerably if the Rebels land in the wrong kind of two-team tie.

Start with Boise State.
UNLV’s 56-31 loss on the blue turf looms large because head-to-head is the first and only tiebreaker in a clean two-team scenario. If the season ends with San Diego State at 7-1 and both Boise State and UNLV at 6-2, the Broncos take the second championship berth without any debate. That one result in October would carry the final word.

New Mexico presents the same problem.
The Lobos beat UNLV 40-35 in Las Vegas, and the league would apply that head-to-head result the same way. In a straight 6-2 tie between the two, New Mexico advances and the Rebels are done.

Those are the only fully definitive elimination paths for UNLV at 6-2.
Every other scenario, three-team ties, four-team ties, combinations involving SDSU or Fresno move to the computer rankings and keep the Rebels in play.

The Mountain West’s rulebook contains a nuance that changes everything:

If even one team in a three-team tie didn’t play another, the league cannot use head-to-head and must default to rankings and computer metrics.

And in 2025, almost none of the contending teams played complete round-robin schedules against each other.

For example:

Because of those gaps:

This actually helps UNLV. It prevents Boise’s or New Mexico’s head-to-head advantage from eliminating the Rebels in anything other than the narrow two-team scenarios.

UNLV’s case would rest on:

Every contender still has something to sweat over in the final two weeks, and each team’s path carries different implications for UNLV.

San Diego State (5-1)
vs San José State, at New Mexico

The Aztecs have the widest range of outcomes, capable of landing anywhere from 7-1 to 5-3. If SDSU runs the table, they secure one championship spot outright and leave everyone else fighting for the second. If they stumble, they drop back into the 6-2 cluster that could reshape the race.

Fresno State (4-2)
vs Utah State, at San José State
The Bulldogs draw the softest close, and their results matter disproportionately because they didn’t play UNLV. That absence keeps Fresno in nearly every multi-team tiebreak configuration, a dynamic that often benefits the Rebels.

Boise State (4-2)
vs Colorado State, at Utah State
This is the team UNLV fans must keep a close eye on. Boise losing once essentially removes the only head-to-head scenario that definitively eliminates UNLV at 6-2. As long as the Broncos have two losses, the Rebels’ margin for error remains narrow.

New Mexico (4-2)
at Air Force, vs San Diego State
No contender is riding a more unpredictable finish. The Lobos could just as easily close 6-2 as 5-3 or 4-4. And because they beat UNLV head-to-head, any New Mexico loss meaningfully improves the Rebels’ chances.

So what should UNLV fans actually root for? Start with the obvious: the Rebels have to handle their own business. Beat Hawai‘i, beat UNR, get to 6-2. Nothing else matters without that.

From there, the roadmap becomes less emotional and more mathematical.

Boise State needs to drop one.
A single Bronco loss eliminates the only truly dangerous head-to-head scenario for UNLV. Boise at 6-2 with UNLV at 6-2 is the one pairing that cleanly knocks the Rebels out.

New Mexico needs to stumble once as well.
Same logic. The Lobos own the head-to-head win, and a two-team tie would send them through.

Fresno State winning is generally helpful.
Because the Bulldogs didn’t play UNLV, their success tends to create the multi-team tie clusters that default to computer rankings: situations where the Rebels are very much alive.

San Diego State is the wildcard.
If the Aztecs run the table, they seal one spot and leave the rest of the league fighting for the second. If they lose, they fall back into the 6-2 scramble. Either outcome offers UNLV a path; only one combination is dangerous: SDSU at 7-1, Boise at 6–2, UNLV at 6-2.

That’s the realistic fan guide: win twice, hope Boise and New Mexico slip, and don’t be afraid of Fresno or the Aztecs. In nearly every other configuration, a 6–2 UNLV enters the final tiebreak as a genuine contender.

The Mountain West race remains fluid, but the structure of UNLV’s path is clearer than it looks.

If the Rebels finish 6-2, they are strongly positioned but not guaranteed to reach the title game. The only clean, automatic elimination scenarios are two-team ties with Boise State or New Mexico, both of whom own head-to-head wins over UNLV.

Everything else depends on CFP positioning and the league’s composite computer rankings. In those larger tie clusters, UNLV’s 10-2 resume gives it a realistic chance to be selected.

In a conference built on fine margins, that’s as much control as anyone has.