(Photo Credit - UNLV Athletics)
UNLV is 5–0 because it’s disciplined, deep, and multiple. Dan Mullen has engineered a team that can win a snow grinder in Laramie and survive a fistfight vs. UCLA. But homecoming against Air Force is a different calculus. As Mullen himself put it, the Falcons are “one of the most explosive offenses in America… probably the top offense in the Mountain West,” with “a lot of shootout games” and even “throwing for more yards than we are.” That profile doesn’t simply test your defense’s eye discipline. It stress-tests your possession quality on offense. This is where the Rebels’ ceiling is plainly tied to one decision: un-ground the Jet.
The case, in black and white
Usage to date: 61 carries (12.2/gm), 489 yards, 8.0 YPC, 5 rush TD; 10 receptions, 40 yards, 1 TD; 0 fumbles.
Game-by-game:
Idaho State: 10-147-3 (70-yard long). Track meet on a pitch count.
at Sam Houston: 9-65-1. Efficient baseline.
UCLA: 13-61. Tough yards vs. a power front.
at Miami (OH): 13-120-1 (9.2 YPC). Explosive without excess volume.
at Wyoming (snow): 16-96 (6.0) plus a receiving TD. Closer’s workload in bad weather.
Translation: This is a feature-back stat line trapped inside committee usage. The Jet’s been grounded to 12-ish touches and still flying at 8.0 per carry with zero turnovers.
Mullen’s philosophy - good process, incomplete answerMullen has explained the rotation with clarity and conviction:
“We have some pretty good backs… With the rotation… each guy brings a little something different… it actually makes you more multiple as an offense while doing less.”
“He’s a big-time playmaker… keeping him healthy short and long term is huge… If he’s at carry 30… might not be at the same level he is when he’s at carry 12.”
He’s right on two counts:
Multiplicity matters. Forcing defenses to prepare “for the play and the player” protects your call sheet and confuses keys.
Overuse kills fourth-quarter juice. Thirty carries isn’t the answer.
But here’s the oversight: none of that argues against a targeted increase. There’s a massive gulf between 12 and 30. The sweet spot, especially against an opponent that accelerates possessions and points, lives in the 15–18 range with intentional, high-leverage deployment.
Why more Jet equals more wins right now
Raise your drive success rate. Thomas’ 8.0 YPC isn’t empty calorie yardage. More early-down touches means fewer 3rd-and-long, more stay-on-schedule play-action, and a higher expected points per drive. exactly what you need when Air Force’s offense is built to trade haymakers.
Convert leverage. Mullen talks about “closing people out on a drive.” Thomas is your closer—he’s already delivered fourth-quarter pop because he’s preserved. Giving him 3–6 extra touches concentrated in Q3–Q4 cashes that preservation into points.
Manage risk. Zero fumbles through five games. Against an option team that manufactures chaos and short fields, ball security is a premium. More Thomas touches are both explosive and safe.
Force defensive compromise. Defenses already have to honor Kevon Lee’s physicality. Tilt 3–6 touches to Thomas and the second-level starts stepping closer, widening windows for your traditional pass concepts Mullen says you need to hit against Air Force.
The opponent dictates urgencyMullen warned you: Air Force now threatens in two throw games, the option play-action shots and a “traditional pass game.” That duality shrinks your margin. If this becomes a race to 34+, the worst outcome for UNLV isn’t a three-and-out, it’s a string of six-play drives that die in plus territory because the ball didn’t go through your best run creator enough in the moments that swing games: 3rd-and-4 to -6, red zone, and the first series after changes of possession.
Blueprint: un-ground the Jet without losing multiplicityKeep the rotation. Sharpen the plan. Here’s how:
Volume: Move from 12 to 15–18 carries. Keep the committee in Q1, tilt to Thomas in Q3–Q4. That honors Mullen’s freshness rule while claiming more expected points.
Sequencing:
First play of each half: a Thomas touch (zone/read with a constraint or a perimeter swing) to set rhythm.
After every takeaway or big special teams play: one Thomas touch inside the next three snaps to weaponize momentum.
Red zone: mandate one Thomas touch per trip. He’s earned your first crack at six.
Concepts that scale:
Duo/inside zone with slice to stress backside fits that overplay option looks on tape.
Counter GT with motion to widen apex defenders; pair with bubble constraint to punish over-rotation.
RPO glance/now off Thomas mesh on 1st-and-10 to lift the box without burning clock.
Third-and-medium package: angle/choice route to get him a high-percentage conversion without telegraphing run.
Protection of multiplicity:
Maintain Lee’s short-yardage/goal-line role; keep his early-down series to keep the scouting report honest.
Tag QB keepers off Thomas looks twice per half to punish scrape exchange and edge crashes.
Layer play-action shot off Thomas’ most successful run formation by mid-Q2; take it if the post safety triggers downhill.
Counterarguments and answers
“Predictability will spike.” Not if you pair Thomas-heavy series with constraint tags and formation variety. The same look can be duo, shot, or swing.
“Wear and tear.” This isn’t 25–30. It’s +3–6 touches, biased to the back half. You keep the closer’s legs and add points earlier.
“We win because we play everyone.” True and that shouldn’t change. This plan reallocates a sliver of volume to your highest-EPA runner in high-leverage spots. Depth still drives the program; Thomas drives the scoreboard.
How this intersects with everything else Mullen said
Discipline travels. Wyoming’s special-teams win happened because guys “ate up blocks” to free the rusher. On offense, discipline means feeding your best option when the situation demands it.
Air Force’s multiplicity requires yours. Mullen emphasized you must be “very, very, very disciplined defensively… tackle all 11.” Complement that with an offense that reduces variance. fewer hero-ball third downs, more first downs from your best runner.
Recruiting and culture benefit. Winning while featuring a star in the right moments doesn’t undercut buy-in; it validates it. Transfers and local recruits see a program that plays a lot of guys and knows when to ride its difference-maker.
Saturday’s litmus test: three tells
Second-half tilt: If this is a one-score game, Thomas should clear 8-10 carries after halftime.
High-leverage touch rate: Every red-zone trip and every 3rd-and-4 to -6 should include a Thomas involvement: hand, mesh, or primary route.
Explosives vs. empty yards: Track 10+ yard runs per touch. If that rate holds near his season clip, the usage bump is self-justifying.
VerdictThe Jet has been grounded by design, and UNLV is 5–0 because the design mostly works. But Air Force’s profile compresses your margin. The solution isn’t abandoning rotation; it’s authorizing takeoff. Add 3–6 Jet Thomas touches in timed, packaged, and protected and you raise the floor of every drive while preserving the closer for the fourth quarter. If UNLV wants to win now and go far later, stop taxiing. The Jet is ready for takeoff.