The Final Round: Updated Mountain West Football Preview

The ballots are in. The media gathered at Circa Las Vegas for Mountain West Football Media Days, and the message was clear: Boise State is still the standard. The Broncos received 35 of 39 first-place votes in the league’s official preseason poll, entering 2025 as the unanimous favorite to win their third straight title.

Right behind them, again, is UNLV. The Rebels earned the other four first-place votes and sit firmly in the No. 2 spot for the second straight year. It’s a reflection of just how far this program has come in a short amount of time. Two years ago, they were picked eighth. Now, they’re the biggest threat to dethrone Boise State.

San Jose State, Colorado State, Fresno State, and Air Force round out a crowded second tier full of potential spoilers. From there, the predictions dip sharply, with Hawai‘i, San Diego State, and Wyoming fighting to stay in the mix, while Utah State, Nevada, and New Mexico begin the long road back under new leadership.

This is the complete, updated Scarlet Standard breakdown of the Mountain West with preseason odds, new faces, and the exact prediction we made in May: Boise State vs. UNLV, one more time.

Here are the Scarlet Standard’s predictions:

Predicted Record: 11–1 (7–1 MW) | Odds: +550

UNLV’s not chasing respect anymore. They’ve earned it. Back-to-back title game appearances and a Top 25 finish last year have turned the Rebels from a punchline into a serious contender.

Dan Mullen steps in with a loaded portal class and a ready-made system. The quarterback battle between Anthony Colandrea (Virginia) and Alex Orji (Michigan) should come down to Week 2 at UCLA, but both bring something that fits. The run game is elite: Jai’Den Thomas returns after 918 yards and is now joined by transfers Jaylon Glover (Utah) and Keyvone Lee (Penn State). JoJo Earle (Alabama) and Daejon Reynolds (Florida) head up a totally rebuilt, much faster WR room. The offensive line is brand new, but it’s SEC-sized and hand-picked.

Defensively, Marsel McDuffie is the lone returning starter, but he’s flanked by elite transfers like Denver Harris (UTSA), Jake Pope (Georgia), and LSU’s Jalen Lee. If it gels early, this defense could be even more explosive than last year’s.

UNLV avoids San Jose. Gets Boise on the road midseason. If the Rebels handle the trenches and hit at QB, they have the best shot of anyone to knock off the champs.

Predicted Record: 9–3 (7–1 MW) | Odds: -130

There’s no question who the favorite is. Boise State returns the best quarterback in the league, the deepest defense, and the most stable coaching staff in the conference. But this isn’t the same squad that steamrolled the Mountain West last fall, and that matters.

Quarterback Maddux Madsen is a legit breakout star candidate. With 3,000+ yards and 23 touchdowns last year, he enters 2025 as the preseason MW Offensive Player of the Year. But replacing All-American RB Ashton Jeanty (now with the Raiders) won’t be easy. Sire Gaines and Fresno State transfer Malik Sherrod will share the load, while LT Kage Casey anchors a dominant O-line.

Defensively, Jayden Virgin-Morgan (14.5 TFL in 2024) headlines a front seven that also includes All-MW DT Braxton Fely. Safety Ty Benefield and CB A’Marion McCoy lead the back end. This group finished top 10 nationally in scoring and yards per play and returns six starters.

The Broncos host UNLV. Even a one-loss conference season should be enough for another title game trip, but don’t expect last year’s CFP magic again unless Madsen finds a Jeanty-level sidekick.

Predicted Record: 8–4 (6–2 MW) | Odds: +700

Don’t be surprised if San José State crashes the title game. Year One under Ken Niumatalolo was better than anyone expected, and now the Spartans return the Mountain West’s most experienced roster, plus a very favorable schedule.

Quarterback Walker Eget is back after a breakout stretch run, and he’ll operate behind a veteran O-line and hand off to the bruising duo of Jabari Bates and Floyd Chalk IV. Nick Nash is gone, but sophomore Matthew Coleman is next up as WR1 in this evolving run-and-shoot system.

The defense brings back eight starters and should be even better. LB Jordan Pollard and DE Taniela Latu are All-MW candidates, and while the secondary took a hit, SJSU has restocked through the portal.

The schedule? No Boise. No UNLV. Fresno State and Air Force both come to CEFCU Stadium. This team may not be as flashy as the top two, but it’s balanced, physical, and quietly dangerous. If they steal one on the road, don’t rule out a tiebreaker path to Vegas.

Predicted Record: 7–5 (5–3 MW) | Odds: +1600

Colorado State has been building toward this moment for three years under Jay Norvell. With an elite returning QB and a defense retooled through the portal, the Rams have the talent to stay in the mix but the question is whether they can finally win the ones that matter.

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi is the best pure passer in the league outside of Maddux Madsen. He threw for over 6,000 yards across the past two seasons and closed 2024 with three straight 300-yard games. CSU lost four of its top five receivers, but Tulsa RB transfer Lloyd Avant could be a breakout weapon, and Norvell has proven he can reload on the outside.

The defense got gutted, so Norvell fired DC Freddie Banks and brought back Tyson Summers. He’ll lean on transfers like JaQues Evans (Baylor), Jahari Rogers (SMU), and Jacob Ellis (Iowa State) to stabilize things quickly. The front seven is big, but untested.

The Rams are a dark horse because they’re tough at home and have a star at the most important position. But with road trips to Boise and UNLV, their path to a title game likely requires perfection everywhere else.

Predicted Record: 7–5 (4–4 MW) | Odds: +1600

Fresno State was one of the Mountain West’s most underachieving teams in 2024, and a lot of that wasn’t their fault. Jeff Tedford’s abrupt retirement right before the season derailed what should’ve been a title-caliber campaign. Now it’s Matt Entz’s turn to pick up the pieces.

Entz, a two-time FCS national champion at North Dakota State, inherits a roster with more talent than people realize. QB EJ Warner (son of Kurt) arrives from Temple/Rice and brings real upside. RBs Bryson Donelson and Elijah Gilliam are proven, physical options. The O-line is the concern: just two starters return, and top tackle Jacob Spomer is moving inside.

Defensively, Fresno was a sneaky elite team last season, ranking #1 in the MW in yards per play allowed and in the top 50 nationally in defensive success rate. That unit returns only three starters, but edge Korey Foreman (former five-star at USC) could be a game-wrecker, and CB Al’zillion Hamilton is one of the league’s best.

The Bulldogs draw both Boise and San José State on the road. If Warner hits early and the defense doesn’t fall off, Fresno can absolutely ruin someone’s season.

Predicted Record: 6–6 (4–4 MW) | Odds: +1800

After a 5–7 stumble last year, Air Force looks ready to rebound, just don’t expect another 10-win season. Troy Calhoun’s teams rarely stay down for long, but questions at quarterback and depth on defense could cap their ceiling in 2025.

The offense returns four players who rushed for 250+ yards, led by fullback Dylan Carson (600 yards in ’24). The line brings back three starters and should be a top-tier unit in the league. But replacing Quentin Hayes at QB is a challenge. Neither Josh Johnson nor Liam Szarka has separated yet, and in a system that depends on precision, that’s a concern.

Defensively, only three starters return. The Falcons are replacing key pieces in the secondary and at linebacker groups that carried them during their 2023 and 2022 success. Brian Knorr returns as DC, but it might take a few games for this group to click.

Air Force travels to UNLV and gets Boise at home. A bowl game is well within reach. Anything more depends on how quickly they solve QB and whether the defense reloads fast enough.

Predicted Record: 6–6 (4–4 MW) | Odds: +3500

Timmy Chang’s rebuild has been slow, but real. After a 5–7 season that ended with back-to-back wins, Hawai‘i enters 2025 with bowl expectations and, for the first time, a quarterback built to run Chang’s vision.

That quarterback is Micah Alejado, a redshirt freshman from Las Vegas who threw five touchdowns in his debut. With a full offseason and a strong group of weapons, including WRs Pofele Ashlock and Nick Cenacle, Hawai‘i’s pass-heavy system is finally ready to take flight. The offensive line gave up 43 sacks last year, so protection must improve for this leap to happen.

Defensively, coordinator Dennis Thurman saw modest gains in Year 1, and seven starters return. The back end is the strength, with safety Peter Manuma and CB Virdel Edwards II, both all-conference talents. The linebacking duo of Logan Taylor and Jamih Otis brings speed, but the D-line remains a liability against the run.

The Rainbow Warriors won’t win the league, but they could finish .500 and get bowl eligible for the first time under Chang, especially with a manageable home schedule and a rising star under center.

Predicted Record: 5–7 (3–5 MW) | Odds: +2500

Sean Lewis was a splashy hire last offseason, but his Year One in San Diego was rough. The Aztecs went just 3–9 while undergoing a total philosophical reboot on both sides of the ball. Year Two brings continuity and pressure to show real progress.

The offense is no longer a slow, ground-and-pound attack. Lewis brought in two transfer QBs to run his uptempo spread: Jayden Denegal (Michigan) and Bert Emanuel Jr. (Central Michigan), and both bring dual-threat upside. Lucky Sutton and Christian Washington anchor a backfield that’s quietly solid, and WR Jordan Napier is a breakout candidate.

Up front, the O-line remains a weakness. SDSU allowed 31 sacks last season and struggled to protect or create rushing lanes. Until that changes, the offense will sputter regardless of scheme.

Defensively, 10 starters return, including All-America edge rusher Trey White, but the unit still gave up 34 points per game in league play. The transition away from the 3-3-5 wasn’t smooth. With better depth and familiarity, this group should improve, but probably not enough to carry them to a bowl.

The Aztecs are heading in the right direction. But they’re not there yet.

Predicted Record: 4–8 (2–6 MW) | Odds: +3500

Utah State hit reset again, bringing in Bronco Mendenhall for his third stint at a Mountain West school. He inherits a mess, just one returning starter on each side of the ball, but also a clean slate and a long runway to rebuild.

Bryson Barnes returns at quarterback after flashing dual-threat ability last year (12 passing TDs, 5 rushing), and the Aggies bolstered the skill positions through the portal. Former BYU RB Miles Davis should help immediately, while ex-UNLV WR Corey Thompson and Texas Tech transfer Brady Boyd add juice to the outside.

The offense’s biggest issue? Chemistry. The line is mostly new, the receivers are all transfers, and there’s no proven depth. Expect inconsistency early.

Defensively, the 2024 group gave up nearly 38 points per game, 119th in success rate nationally. That won’t fly under Mendenhall. He brought in transfer help at all three levels and returns impact safety Ike Larsen and DT Gabriel Iniguez Jr., but the Aggies are still a year away from contending physically.

Bronco’s presence raises the floor long-term but in 2025, bowl eligibility would be overachieving.

Predicted Record: 4–8 (2–6 MW) | Odds: +4000

Jay Sawvel’s first full season in Laramie is all about growth. The Cowboys stumbled to a 3–9 record in 2024, their worst in nearly a decade, but showed late-season signs of life, including a tight game against Boise State.

Quarterback Kaden Anderson injected some juice into the offense down the stretch and is now QB1 heading into 2025. He’ll be supported by a solid running back rotation led by Sam Scott and a veteran O-line returning four starters. Tight end John Michael Gyllenborg is a legit playmaker and Anderson’s top target in the passing game.

But the biggest concern? The defense. Wyoming usually leans on toughness and physicality, but last year, they fell off a cliff, allowing over 200 rushing yards per game in league play and finishing 96th in success rate. Only one starter returns, and the front seven took severe portal losses.

Wyoming’s blueprint hasn’t changed: win in the trenches, keep scores low, and wear teams down. However, they currently lack the personnel to do it consistently. The Cowboys are tough, but too thin.

Predicted Record: 3–9 (1–7 MW) | Odds: +6000

Jeff Choate’s first year brought progress but not wins. Nevada finished 3–10, yet looked far more competitive than the team that collapsed under Ken Wilson. The next step? Turning effort into results. That won’t be easy in Year Two with nearly the entire roster turned over.

The offense starts fresh with former Florida State and Nebraska QB Chubba Purdy, who replaces Brendon Lewis. He brings mobility and upside, but he’ll need help. The Wolf Pack rank near the bottom nationally in returning production, with major question marks at running back, wide receiver, and along the offensive line. WR Marcus Bellon (39 catches, 522 yards) is one of the few proven weapons.

Defensively, it’s another near-complete rebuild. Just one starter, DL Thomas Witte, returns. The secondary and linebacking corps were hit especially hard by graduation and the portal. Choate hit the JUCO and FBS transfer markets hard, but this group is young, thin, and learning on the fly.

Nevada is tougher than it used to be, but it’s still badly outgunned. A one-win Mountain West campaign feels likely again unless Purdy goes nuclear.

Predicted Record: 2–10 (0–8 MW) | Odds: +10000

Three coaches in three years. That tells you just about everything you need to know about the state of New Mexico football.

Jason Eck takes over after a strong run at Idaho, where he went 26–13 and made the playoffs twice. He’s a good coach. He also inherits the toughest rebuild in the Mountain West.

The offense returns just one starter, but Eck brought in some familiar faces. QB Jack Layne (from Idaho) and RB Scottre Humphrey (Montana State) should contribute right away, along with Kansas State transfer WR Keagan Johnson. But the O-line is almost entirely new, and that’s a problem for a unit that ranked near the bottom of the FBS in efficiency last year.

Defensively, it doesn’t get much better. The Lobos allowed 38 points per game in 2024 and return just three starters. The linebackers, led by Randolph Kpai and Idaho transfer Jaxton Eck, are solid, but the D-line and secondary are major question marks.

New Mexico is in good hands long-term with Eck. But in 2025? It’s hard to find a winnable conference game on the schedule.

The Pick

Boise State and UNLV are on a collision course again. And once again, the Mountain West title runs through Las Vegas. But this time, the result is different. With Dan Mullen’s system fully installed, a playmaker emerging at quarterback, and a retooled defense rounding into form, UNLV finally breaks through. The Rebels take down Boise at Allegiant and win their first-ever Mountain West championship. It’s not the safe pick, it’s the right one.