The Final Round: 2025 Mountain West Football Preview

The Last Dance Before the Realignment Storm

This is it.

2025 marks the final full season of the Mountain West as we know it. Next summer, five long-time members — Boise State, Fresno State, San Diego State, Colorado State, and Utah State — will exit for the new-look Pac-12. UNLV, fresh off back-to-back title game appearances, may be next.

That gives this fall a strange weight. The league is still competitive, but fractured. Lawsuits linger. Exit fees are being debated. Rivalries are either closing or changing forever. And through it all, the Mountain West is preparing for one last season of true conference chaos.

2024 Recap: Boise Dominates, UNLV Falls Again

Boise State ran the table in league play last year and left no doubt. The Broncos defeated UNLV 21–7 on the blue turf to capture their second straight Mountain West championship. They outmuscled opponents on both lines and leaned on a shutdown defense when it mattered most.

UNLV, meanwhile, proved its 2023 breakthrough wasn’t a fluke. The Rebels hosted the title game in 2023, returned to it in 2024, and now have a new head coach in Dan Mullen. They’re built to win now — and may never have a better shot.

Behind them, Colorado State finished 6–2 in the league, San José State quietly won eight games, and Air Force stayed competitive. But teams like Nevada, New Mexico, and San Diego State floundered, triggering coaching changes and full-on rebuilds.

Projected Standings & Title Odds

The Contenders:

UNLV Rebels

Predicted Record: 11–1 (7–1 MW)

Recruiting: #2 Overall | #1 Transfer

After years in the wilderness, UNLV is no longer a punchline — it’s a problem. The Rebels have gone 20–8 over the past two seasons, reached back-to-back Mountain West title games, and now enter 2025 with their best roster yet.

Dan Mullen takes over for Barry Odom, who parlayed the program’s rise into a Power Five job at Purdue. Mullen inherits a fully stocked cupboard — including a veteran offensive line, multiple returning skill weapons, and the conference’s top-ranked transfer class. His task? Take the final step Odom couldn’t: win the title.

The Rebels boast the deepest quarterback room in the Mountain West, the best transfer class in the league (per 247Sports), and a schedule that avoids Boise State until late October. They also play home games against Air Force, Utah State, and Hawai‘i — three of their most dangerous MW opponents.

UNLV’s lone projected loss is at Boise, a place where they’ve struggled historically. But they match up well in the trenches and return most of the two-deep from the team that held the Broncos to just 21 points in last year’s title game.

With Allegiant Stadium firmly established as a top-tier home field and fan interest steadily rising, UNLV may never have a better opportunity to win its first-ever Mountain West title. Mullen’s track record with quarterbacks, coupled with the Rebels’ upgraded defensive front, makes this team dangerous — and possibly historic.

Boise State Broncos

Predicted Record: 8–4 (6–2 MW)

Recruiting: #1 Overall | #4 Transfer

Boise State enters the 2025 season as the two-time defending Mountain West champion. However, the departure of All-American running back Ashton Jeanty to the NFL leaves a significant void in the offense. With no clear successor, the Broncos may rely on a committee approach in the backfield.

Quarterback play is another area of focus. The addition of Zak Hill as the quarterbacks coach aims to develop consistency and efficiency in the passing game. The offensive line, led by Tim Keane, will be crucial in providing protection and establishing the run game.

Defensively, the Broncos remain formidable. The return of standout linebacker Andrew Simpson and the presence of Braxton Fely on the defensive line bolster a unit that thrives on pressure and disciplined play. The secondary, while younger, benefits from the guidance of co-defensive coordinator Tyler Stockton.

Head coach Spencer Danielson, who secured a new five-year contract after leading the team to a 12–2 finish and a College Football Playoff appearance in 2024, continues to instill a culture of resilience and competitiveness.

The 2025 schedule presents challenges, including non-conference games at South Florida and Notre Dame. However, key Mountain West matchups against UNLV, Colorado State, and Fresno State are at home, providing a favorable path to another conference title.

Despite the offensive uncertainties, Boise State’s strong recruiting class and defensive prowess position them as a top contender in the Mountain West.

Air Force Falcons

Predicted Record: 8–4 (6–2 MW)

Recruiting: #12 Overall | N/A Transfer

No team in the Mountain West knows its identity better than Air Force. The Falcons remain one of the most disciplined and efficient programs in the country, and while they don’t win headlines in February, they win plenty of games in the fall.

2025 will be no different. Troy Calhoun returns a seasoned group, especially in the front seven and the offensive interior — the heartbeat of Air Force’s signature triple-option attack. While other programs chased the portal, the Falcons stuck with development and cohesion, bringing back 16 starters and continuity across the board.

The schedule sets them up as a sleeper contender. They host Boise State, a game they’re projected to win, and face Army and Navy in favorable spots as they chase the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy. But tricky road trips to San José State and UNLV — two of the most athletic teams in the league — are likely what keep Air Force out of the title game.

Still, this is a top-half Mountain West team and a near-lock for bowl eligibility. The Falcons don’t beat themselves, and with modest improvement at quarterback and more explosiveness from the slot, they’re fully capable of knocking off a contender or two and shaking up the standings.

They may not be flashy, but Air Force is built to win — and nobody should want to face them in November.

San José State Spartans

Predicted Record: 8–4 (6–2 MW)

Recruiting: #10 Overall | #9 Transfer

San José State doesn’t get much attention in the national realignment conversation, but in the 2025 Mountain West race, they’re very much in it. Now in Year 2 under Ken Niumatalolo, the Spartans look like one of the most complete and underappreciated teams in the conference.

Last year, Niumatalolo quietly led SJSU to a 7-win season in a transition year, and they return most of the defense that carried them down the stretch. Led by standout linebacker Elijah Wood and a deep, versatile secondary, this is one of the best defensive units in the league. They swarm to the ball, rarely give up explosive plays, and finished top-three in red zone defense last season.

Offensively, the Spartans will go as far as their quarterback development takes them. The run game should be reliable behind a solid offensive line, but it’s the intermediate passing game — a strength of Niumatalolo’s previous Navy offenses — that needs to click for them to take the next step.

The schedule works in their favor. San José avoids Boise State, UNLV, and Colorado State entirely and gets Air Force and Fresno State at home. If the offense avoids turnovers and stays on schedule, the Spartans will have a shot to reach the title game in the final two weeks.

Don’t sleep on San José. This is a well-coached, tough group that could be 2025’s biggest surprise.

Middle of the Pack:

Fresno State Bulldogs

Predicted Record: 8–4 (6–2 MW)

Recruiting: #5 Overall | #5 Transfer

Fresno State enters 2025 with a new head coach and a familiar expectation: stay competitive, reach a bowl, and be a tough out every week. Matt Entz, who spent 2024 as a defensive analyst at USC after a dominant run at North Dakota State, inherits a battle-tested roster and a program with championship DNA.

Entz is widely respected for building elite defenses — and Fresno’s identity already fits that mold. The Bulldogs return a hard-nosed front seven that gave opposing quarterbacks fits in 2024, and linebacker depth is among the best in the Mountain West. They’re physical, disciplined, and disruptive — just how Entz likes it.

The offense, however, remains a work in progress. Fresno must replace its top rusher and a multi-year starter at quarterback. The line is experienced, and the receiver room is sneaky deep, but a lot hinges on how quickly the new QB can get comfortable. Early games against Kansas and Georgia Southern should offer clarity.

Schedule-wise, Fresno draws a tough road slate — Boise State, Colorado State, and Utah State are all projected losses. But they get Nevada, Wyoming, and San José State at home — all winnable, and all crucial to staying above .500.

This isn’t a rebuilding year — it’s a transitional one. But with a top-five recruiting class and the right coach for the moment, Fresno State is well-positioned to close out its Mountain West chapter with toughness and consistency.

Colorado State Rams

Predicted Record: 5–7 (3–5 MW)

Recruiting: #3 Overall | #3 Transfer

Jay Norvell has injected life into Colorado State’s roster, especially on offense, but in 2025, talent may not be enough to overcome one of the conference’s toughest schedules. The Rams are trending upward, but they’re still short of breaking into the Mountain West’s elite tier.

The receiving corps, as usual under Norvell, is the program’s strength. Tory Horton is gone, but CSU remains stacked at wideout, and quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi returns with another offseason of development. If the offensive line holds up, this group will score. The concern? They’ll have to.

Defensively, CSU has some playmakers but lacks the depth of top-tier contenders like Boise and UNLV. The secondary is young, and the run defense struggled down the stretch last season. New additions from the portal should help, but they’ll need to grow up fast.

The schedule does Norvell no favors. The Rams open at Washington and also face UTSA, Boise State, Fresno State, and UNLV — all teams projected to finish above them. Their most winnable games are at New Mexico, versus Hawai‘i, and home against Nevada and Utah State.

With the #3 recruiting class in both overall and transfer rankings, Norvell has laid the groundwork. If they can pull off a couple of upsets and defend home field, six wins is within reach. But with a top-heavy schedule and a still-developing defense, bowl eligibility might come down to the final week.

Wyoming Cowboys

Predicted Record: 5–7 (3–5 MW)

Recruiting: #7 Overall | #11 Transfer

Wyoming enters its second year under Jay Sawvel with a familiar identity: physical, stingy on defense, and just good enough to make life miserable for better teams. The question, as always in Laramie, is whether they can find enough offensive firepower to reach bowl eligibility.

The good news? The defense remains a strength. Wyoming’s front seven is one of the league’s most experienced, with strong linebacker play and a secondary that thrives in zone coverage. They’ll keep games close — and they’re even tougher at 7,200 feet, where the Cowboys are notoriously hard to beat.

But offensive growth is needed. The Cowboys lost key pieces at running back and quarterback, and while the offensive line returns some depth, this unit struggled to finish drives in 2024. The passing game, in particular, was among the least efficient in the league — and that won’t cut it in a schedule loaded with road challenges.

Speaking of which, the 2025 slate is not forgiving. Wyoming must travel to Air Force, UNLV, and San José State, and hosts Boise State in a swing game. Wins against Hawai‘i, Nevada, and possibly New Mexico are in reach, but they’ll need to steal one late to stay in bowl contention.

Sawvel’s long-term vision seems aligned with Wyoming’s culture: tough, disciplined football with a blue-collar edge. But without a major jump on offense, the Cowboys are likely to hover around the five-win mark again.

Hawai‘i Rainbow Warriors

Predicted Record: 4–8 (3–5 MW)

Recruiting: #11 Overall | #10 Transfer

It’s now or never for Timmy Chang. Entering his third season at the helm, the former Hawai‘i quarterback great finds himself firmly on the hot seat after two straight losing campaigns and mounting pressure from the fan base. The Rainbow Warriors made strides in 2024 — especially through the air — but major questions still linger in the trenches.

Offensively, Hawai‘i is improving. The WR room is among the league’s deepest, and the addition of several transfer targets gives the Rainbow Warriors real explosiveness on the outside. Quarterback play was inconsistent last year, but with more weapons and a simplified scheme, the passing game could be a strength.

The problems lie up front. Both the offensive and defensive lines remain among the weakest in the Mountain West. Hawai‘i struggled to run the ball consistently and gave up far too many sacks in 2024, while the defense couldn’t get off the field on third down. Chang hit the transfer portal hard, but the additions are mostly developmental.

The schedule includes early trips to Arizona and San Diego State, plus road games at UNLV and Air Force — all projected losses. Still, Hawai‘i could steal wins at home against Reno, Fresno State, or Utah State, and the season finale at New Mexico could offer a morale boost.

Three or four wins feels about right. But if they underachieve again, it may be someone else leading the rebuild in 2026.

The Rebuilders:

San Diego State Aztecs

Predicted Record: 3–9 (2–6 MW)

Recruiting: #4 Overall | #7 Transfer

San Diego State didn’t just need a new coach — it needed a new identity. After years of offensive stagnation, the Aztecs hired Sean Lewis to inject life into the program. Known for his uptempo “Flash Fast” system at Kent State and as Colorado’s former offensive coordinator, Lewis is tasked with overhauling a roster built for a completely different brand of football.

It’s going to take time.

The Aztecs have one of the Mountain West’s weakest quarterback rooms, with no proven option currently atop the depth chart. The offensive line is thin, inexperienced, and poorly suited for the fast-paced system Lewis wants to implement. While the running back and wide receiver rooms have potential, it won’t matter without stability up front.

Defensively, SDSU is no longer the feared unit it was earlier in the decade. The front seven is serviceable, but the secondary was one of the league’s worst in 2024, giving up big plays far too often. Lewis retained some defensive staff to preserve continuity, but the unit must improve in tackling and discipline.

The schedule offers little relief. The Aztecs open with Stony Brook, then face Washington State, Cal, Boise State, and UNLV before Halloween. Their best shots at wins come against Nevada, New Mexico, and a potential coin-flip game at Hawai‘i.

There’s a long road back to contention. Lewis is the right coach to modernize the offense — but don’t expect miracles in Year 2.

Utah State Aggies

Predicted Record: 3–9 (1–7 MW)

Recruiting: #6 Overall | #8 Transfer

2025 marks the start of a new chapter for Utah State — and the beginning of its farewell tour in the Mountain West. The Aggies are one of five schools set to join the Pac-12 in 2026, but first-year head coach Bronco Mendenhall inherits a roster that’s more rebuild than reload.

Mendenhall, the former BYU and Virginia head coach, brings a proven defensive pedigree and a program-builder’s mindset. His hire signals Utah State’s long-term vision, but in the short term, this is a team in transition. The Aggies struggled on both sides of the ball in 2024, finishing near the bottom of the league in scoring defense and rushing efficiency.

There’s talent to work with, especially at linebacker and along the offensive line, but quarterback remains unsettled and the secondary is thin. Mendenhall hit the portal to plug gaps, bringing in several three-star transfers, but few are instant-impact types.

The schedule doesn’t do them many favors. Utah State opens with a manageable home game against UTEP, but trips to Texas A&M, UNLV, and Fresno State are likely losses. Their best chances at wins come in a midseason stretch that includes New Mexico, Nevada, and McNeese.

The recruiting classes are encouraging — top 8 in both high school and transfers — but 2025 will be about laying the foundation. A bowl run is unlikely, but if Mendenhall can establish a physical identity and stabilize the roster, the Aggies could be a year away from competing in their new conference.

UNR Wolf Pack

Predicted Record: 2–10 (1–7 MW)

Recruiting: #3 Overall | #6 Transfer

Jeff Choate steps into Year 2 of a full-scale rebuild in Reno, and the foundation is still very much under construction. Since the start of 2022, Nevada has just two Mountain West wins — over San Diego State and New Mexico in 2023 — and went winless in league play in 2022 and 2024. The Wolf Pack are trying to claw their way out of the basement, but the climb remains steep.

Choate, a defensive-minded coach, has focused on toughness and discipline. The defense should be marginally improved thanks to added depth up front and a few promising transfers in the secondary. The linebacker corps is young but physical — a good fit for Choate’s system.

Offensively, the story remains bleak. The Pack haven’t had a consistent quarterback since Carson Strong, and the 2025 depth chart doesn’t offer much clarity. The offensive line struggled last year, and there’s no proven difference-maker at running back or receiver. Scoring points — especially against top-half Mountain West defenses — will be a grind.

The schedule offers few breaks. Nevada opens at Penn State and faces Boise State, UNLV, and San José State in November. Their two best chances at wins are Middle Tennessee at home and San Diego State — a team they upset in 2023 and are projected to beat again.

Nevada’s top-six recruiting and transfer classes suggest long-term hope. But for now, this remains a bottom-tier team still seeking a clear identity — and its first conference win since 2023.

New Mexico Lobos

Predicted Record: 1–11 (0–8 MW)

Recruiting: #12 Overall | #12 Transfer

After a one-year turnaround under Bronco Mendenhall that brought rare stability and a 5–7 finish, New Mexico is starting over — again. Mendenhall’s departure to Utah State leaves new head coach Jason Eck with a rebuilding project in a program desperate for momentum.

Eck, who led Idaho to consecutive FCS playoff appearances, brings a reputation for physical football and offensive innovation. But in Year 1, he inherits a roster that’s light on experience, depth, and proven production. The quarterback position is unsettled, the offensive line has multiple new starters, and the receiving corps is unproven.

Defensively, there’s slightly more to work with. A handful of returning linebackers and transfer additions give the Lobos some hope against the run, but the secondary was one of the Mountain West’s weakest in 2024 and may get picked apart again unless the pass rush improves.

The schedule is brutal. New Mexico opens at Michigan, then faces UCLA, Fresno State, Boise State, UNLV, and San Diego State. Even games against Nevada and Utah State are on the road.

The lone near-guaranteed win is against Idaho State in Week 2. Beyond that, any victory would be a mild upset — and the offense will need to exceed expectations to get there. Still, Eck is a sharp hire for the long term, and if he can retain talent and build a culture, better years could follow. Just not yet.

Title Game Prediction

UNLV at Boise State — again. The Rebels are more talented, but Boise wins the head-to-head at home. For the third year in a row, these two programs should decide the conference title.

Final Thoughts

This season is more than just football — it’s the end of an era. With five teams on their way out and others possibly following, the Mountain West is about to be reshaped permanently. But for now, it still has great teams, fierce rivalries, and a championship to settle.

Enjoy the final round.