For the first time in program history, UNLV football enters a season with a Vegas win total line that reflects belief instead of mockery. Caesars Sportsbook has set the Rebels’ 2025 win total at 8.5, the highest in at least 20 years. This isn’t some legacy boost or a sympathy line — it’s based on results. UNLV has won 20 games over the last two seasons, reached back-to-back Mountain West title games, and just blew out Cal in the LA Bowl for its first postseason win since the Clinton administration.
Still, not everyone is sold.
CBS Sportsline handicapper Bruce Marshall, who won the Las Vegas Review-Journal College Football Challenge last year, leans toward the under — despite acknowledging the Rebels’ talent influx under new head coach Dan Mullen. “The Rebs are a hard read because of the mass of portal adds,” Marshall said. “At the moment, I am thinking more a 7- or maybe 8-win regular season.”
He’s not alone. While Caesars’ Joey Feazel confirmed that UNLV is currently favored in 10 games, he also pointed to UCLA and Boise State as formidable hurdles. Mullen’s arrival adds intrigue — and volatility. And with major losses like Barry Odom (to Purdue), Hajj-Malik Williams (graduation), Jackson Woodard (NFL), and Ricky White III (also NFL), it’s fair to wonder: can UNLV really take the next step, or is this win total just Vegas smoke?
Rebuilding or Reloading?
UNLV didn’t just lose talent — it lost pillars. Williams was the unexpected breakout star who stabilized the offense. Woodard was a tackling machine who set the defensive tone. White was a legitimate pro who drew double coverage and still burned secondaries. Odom, meanwhile, transformed the culture — and then cashed in.
But the cupboard isn’t bare. It’s been restocked.
New coach Dan Mullen inherits a veteran offensive line, returning skill talent, and the #1 transfer class in the Mountain West (247Sports). Quarterback will be decided between Michigan’s Alex Orji — a dynamic runner with upside — and Virginia’s Anthony Colandrea, a sharp downfield thrower who may already be the most gifted passer in the league. Whoever wins the job will be protected and surrounded.
The defense? Rebuilt, not reset. While losing Woodard stings, the Rebels brought in SEC-caliber depth, upgraded on the edges, and project to be faster overall. Mullen and his staff — especially DC Paul Guenther — believe this unit can be more aggressive than in years past.
The Schedule Sets the Stage
For those skeptical of 8.5, the logic is simple: the margin is thin.
UNLV opens on the road at Sam Houston, a game Bruce Marshall calls “no gimme.” Then comes the home opener against UCLA, who will be well-favored. The non-conference slate also includes Idaho State (a must-win) and a tricky trip to Miami (Ohio) — a tough, physical MAC team.
Go 3–1 in that stretch, and the over is alive.
Go 2–2? You need a 7–1 run in conference play, which likely means beating Air Force, San José State, Fresno State, Utah State, and Colorado State, while surviving Hawai‘i and Nevada. Not impossible — especially since the Rebels host five of those seven — but it puts immense pressure on every Saturday.
Their one projected loss? At Boise, on October 25. UNLV hasn’t won on the blue turf since... ever. And that game could decide everything.
The Verdict
Is 8.5 a fair number? Absolutely. Is it a lock? Of course not. This is UNLV football — we’re still only two years removed from four-win seasons feeling like progress.
But here’s the thing: this number isn’t hype. It’s not nostalgia. It’s not even based on last year’s magic. It’s based on the reality that UNLV has built a top-two roster in the Mountain West, plays in a world-class stadium, and just hired a coach with New Year’s Six wins on his résumé.
This is a bet on infrastructure — not just vibes.
Final Word
A lot of people are waiting for UNLV to crash back to earth. That’s understandable. This program has more scar tissue than success. But every trend ends somewhere — and if Dan Mullen keeps this train on the tracks, the Rebels won’t just clear 8.5.
They might win the whole damn thing.
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