The Mountain West is beginning to take shape in the first weekend of November. Boise State, San Diego State, and UNLV have already drawn a line between themselves and the rest of the league, but some battles are brewing around the top of the pecking order. The outcome of the week has conference tiebreaker, bowl eligibility, and even “Championship Four” group implications. Here’s the guide to each game by kickoff:

9:00 a.m. PT – CBS

The read: This is still option-on-option DNA, but the Falcons have layered in an explosives element that the Black Knights can’t match.

Sustain vs. burst: Army lives on schedule (TOP 36:41, 3rd-down 40.5%, 4th-down 67.7%) and grinds with 275.6 rush YPG, while Air Force can do that and hit over the top (12.0 YPA passing, 36.9 PPG, 472.1 YPG [AFA: 283.7 rush YPG]).

QB edge: Liam Szarka (AFA) leads his team in both rushing (725, 9 TD) and downfield efficiency; Cade Harris and Bruin Fleischmann turn the rare throws into chunk gains (20+ YPR profiles).

Situational ball: AFA holds the ball 33:01 and converts 50% on 3rd down. Army’s kick game is shakier (FG 7/12), which matters in a one-score script.

Explosive tax: Army’s pass game is strictly constrained (85.6 pass YPG, 8.0 YPA on low volume). If the Black Knights trail, their comeback menu is thin.

Pick: Air Force

12:00 p.m. PT – MWN

UNLV continues to blend power and pace better than anyone in the Mountain West. The Rebels are averaging 37.1 points per game on 447.1 yards per game, with near-perfect balance between a 238.7 YPG passing attack and a 208.4 YPG ground game.

Anthony Colandrea remains the centerpiece, 1,671 yards, 13 TD, 4 INT, 67.5 completion %, steering an offense that hits 8.6 yards per attempt through the air and 5.7 yards per carry on the ground. Jai’Den Thomas gives them pop at running back (615 yards, 7 TD, 7.4 YPC), while wideouts Jaden Bradley (528 yards, 18.2 YPR) and Daejon Reynolds (19.3 YPR) stretch coverage. UNLV’s red-zone touchdown rate and turnover margin (+10) remain the backbone of its 6-1 start.

Defensively, the Rebels are volatile but opportunistic, with 10 interceptions, four forced fumbles, and the ability to steal drives. Aamaris Brown already owns 4 INT and two defensive TDs, and Marsel McDuffie’s tackling presence (51 total) stabilizes the middle.

New Mexico’s 2025 turnaround has been legit. The Lobos average 29.0 PPG and 371.3 YPG, moving the chains with 41% third-down efficiency and an offense that’s far more balanced than in recent years. Jack Layne has thrown for 1,715 yards, 12 TD, 8 INT, 67.1%, with tight end Dorian Thomas (39-423-4) and receiver Keagan Johnson (39-415-2) serving as security blankets. Damon Bankston is a multipurpose threat (410 rush, 201 receiving, 4 TD) behind an offensive line that’s allowed just 12 sacks.

Defensively, Jaxton Eck (82 tackles) and Keyshawn James-Newby (4.5 sacks) headline a front that ranks in the top half in rush defense efficiency. The Lobos are disciplined, with just 45 penalties for 353 yards, and kicker Luke Drzewiecki has been automatic (8-for-9 FG, 100% PATs).

The matchup boils down to pace. UNLV’s offense runs at tempo and forces mismatches, while New Mexico thrives on drive control (average 30:45 TOP) and third-down volume. If the Rebels reach 70 plays, history suggests they will score 30 points. If the Lobos shorten possessions and win field position, they can drag it into the fourth.

Still, at home, with superior explosiveness and turnover creation, UNLV’s efficiency should win out.

Pick: UNLV

12:30 p.m. PT – FS1

Boise State enters Week 10 atop the Mountain West with a balanced, efficient attack that continues to evolve. The Broncos average 35.3 points and 457.4 yards per game, ranking top-25 nationally in both categories. Quarterback Maddux Madsen has thrown for 2,086 yards, 16 touchdowns, and seven interceptions, completing 60.5% of his passes at 7.9 yards per attempt. The offense runs through a physical backfield tandem of Dylan Riley (729 yards, 7 TD, 7.4 YPC) and Sire Gaines (434 yards, 5 TD), combining for nearly 200 rushing yards per game and 19 total touchdowns.

The passing game is adjusting after losing both Chris Marshall (suspension) and Ben Ford (season-ending injury). Latrell Caples (25-335-3) and tight end Matt Lauter (20-202-1) have become Madsen’s primary targets, while the staff continues rotating depth options like Cameron Bates and Matt Wagner to stretch the field. Defensively, Boise remains aggressive and opportunistic, with 18 sacks, 11 interceptions, and a +5 turnover margin. Ty Benefield (55 tackles) sets the tone in the secondary, and A’Marion McCoy leads the league with four interceptions.

Fresno State will officially turn to freshman quarterback Carson Conklin, who replaced E.J. Warner last week and has been named the starter going forward. Conklin brings mobility and tempo but remains raw, completing 52% of his passes for 224 yards and 2 INT. The Bulldogs average 25.6 points and 363.4 yards per game, leaning on a backfield split between Bryson Donelson (428 yards, 3 TD) and Rayshon Luke (407, 5 TD). Josiah Freeman (27-326-4) and Richie Anderson III (22-224-2) headline a deep receiving unit that’s struggled with consistency.

Defensively, Fresno allows 363 yards per game but has forced 10 interceptions and 13 sacks, led by Finn Claypool (3.5 sacks) and LB Jadon Pearson (65 tackles). The Bulldogs are -3 in turnover margin, and kicker Dylan Lynch (8-for-12 FGs, long 43) has left points on the board in recent weeks.

Pick: Boise State

4:00 p.m. PT – CBSSN

Both of these programs lean on identity: Wyoming’s physicality and ball control against San Diego State’s defense-first structure and clean execution. But one of them has been far more consistent at turning that into wins.

The Cowboys have hovered around .500 primarily on the back of Kaden Anderson, who’s thrown for 1,669 yards, 11 TD, 7 INT, completing nearly 60% of his passes at 6.6 yards per attempt. Wyoming’s ground game remains its backbone. Samuel Harris (430 yards, 5.7 YPC) and Terron Kellman (302 yards, 4 TD, 6.0 YPC) give them balance, and they’ve scored nine rushing touchdowns overall.

Their issue is finishing. Wyoming ranks middle of the pack in red-zone touchdown rate and has converted fewer than 40% of third downs. Defensively, Brayden Johnson (48 tackles) and Tyce Westland (5 sacks) lead a group that’s solid up front but hasn’t forced consistent takeaways (just seven interceptions and five forced fumbles).

San Diego State, meanwhile, has quietly built one of the Mountain West’s most complete teams. The Aztecs average 29.9 points per game on 363.9 total yards, split almost evenly between pass (179.7 YPG) and run (184.1 YPG). Jayden Denegal has been efficient and turnover-free (64.3%, 1,258 yards, 7 TD, 3 INT, 8.2 YPA), while Lucky Sutton’s physical style (662 yards, 7 TD) gives them control of tempo.

Defensively, SDSU thrives on pressure and discipline, 16 sacks, seven interceptions, and one of the lowest red-zone TD rates in the league. Chris Johnson has emerged as a star corner with 3 INT, 176 return yards, and two touchdowns, and Owen Chambliss continues to pile up stops (57 tackles). Add in Gabriel Plascencia’s perfect kicking record (13-for-13 FGs, long 53) and the Aztecs’ advantage in hidden yardage is glaring.

Wyoming has enough toughness to hang early, but SDSU’s combination of defensive takeaways, field position, and red-zone consistency should eventually separate. Expect another efficient, low-possession game that stays within reach before the Aztecs close it out in the fourth.

Pick: San Diego State

7:30 p.m. PT – CBSSN

Hawai‘i enters Week 10 as one of the league’s biggest surprises. Micah Alejado has stabilized the offense with 1,757 yards, 12 TD, and a 65.6% completion rate, giving the Rainbow Warriors a reliable trigger man in Timmy Chang’s quick-strike scheme. They throw it almost 60% of the time and average 296 passing yards per game, but the short game masks a leaky pocket. Hawai‘i has allowed 24 sacks.

The backfield is led by Landon Sims (382 yards, 4.7 YPC) and Cam Barfield (190 yards, 5.0 YPC), but neither has topped 100 yards in a game. The air corps is deep: Pofele Ashlock (48-494-6) works the slots and seams, while Jackson Harris (29-467-5) provides the vertical punch.

Defensively, the Warriors bend but occasionally break, with 23 sacks, nine interceptions, and a few splash plays from Jamih Otis (44 tackles, 2 FF, 1 FR TD). Their biggest weapon, though, is Kansei Matsuzawa, who is perfect 20-for-20 on field goals with a long of 52, which allows Chang to steal points when drives stall.

San José State, meanwhile, remains better than its record. Walker Eget has thrown for 2,149 yards and 15 touchdowns at 7.7 yards per attempt, but the Spartans have lacked situational execution, converting 45.5% of third-down attempts, yet scoring just 24 points per game. Danny Scudero continues to pace the league in receiving (870 yards, 8 TD), and SJSU’s pass rush has flashed with 15 sacks.

Pick: San José State

Record: 49-18 (.731) SU | ATS: 5-4

UNLV ML: Coming off a bye and a humiliating loss at Boise, UNLV should respond with urgency. The offense remains one of the most balanced and efficient in the Mountain West, and playing at home gives the Rebels the edge to make a statement.

Boise State -17.5: Fresno turns to freshman Carson Conklin after E.J. Warner was benched. That’s a nightmare setup against a Boise defense that thrives on pressure and turnovers. The Broncos’ offense continues to roll with elite balance and tempo.

Air Force -1: Air Force’s run game and discipline create an efficiency ceiling Army can’t match. The Falcons are more explosive, cleaner on third down, and simply the better team at home in Colorado Springs.

The Mountain West enters its defining stretch. UNLV and San Diego State are positioning themselves for December, while Boise State appears to be the clear power again. Hawai‘i has quietly emerged as a spoiler with staying power. Expect clarity by Sunday, but not before some chaos in the late-night window.

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