The shape of the Mountain West
Week 8 swapped vibes for proof. Boise throttled UNLV and now owns three of the league’s top-10 single-game yardage totals. San Diego State keeps turning Saturdays into dental work. UNLV remains a tightrope: dazzling on O, bottom-tier on D, flags everywhere
1) Boise State (5-2, 3-0)
Why No. 1: No one in the Mountain West blends muscle and flash like Boise State. The Broncos’ 56-point outburst against UNLV (matching the league’s season-high) was a master class in balance: 294 rushing yards on 33 carries (8.9 YPC) and chunk plays in every quarter. And it wasn’t an outlier. Boise owns three of the conference’s top 10 offensive performances this season: 637 yards vs. Eastern Washington, 592 at Air Force (10.2 YPP), and 558 against UNLV (9.8 YPP).
Explosive and efficient:
Quarterback Maddux Madsen (1,823 yards, 15 TD, 8.1 YPA) has grown into full control of the attack, spreading touches between Chris Marshall (440 yards) and Ben Ford (325, 5 TD) while landing deep shots of 75 and 65 yards. Behind him, RB Dylan Riley gives the offense its bite, 695 yards, 8.1 per carry, six scores, the kind of back who can flip a possession with one crease.
Defensive disruption:
The defense isn’t perfect, but it’s violent and opportunistic. 16 sacks, eight interceptions, and a pair of pick-sixes from A’Marion McCoy (3 INT, 82 return yards) tell the story. The front seven leans on Jayden Virgin-Morgan (2.5 sacks) and Braxton Fely (4.5) to collapse pockets, generating 96 sack yards in seven games. They’re not a shutdown defense, but they create problems and points at the right moments.
What still breaks:
The same few flaws keep surfacing: penalties and tackling. Boise leads the league in flags (67.6 yards per game) and occasionally lets opponents steal hidden yards after contact. Clean that up, and there’s not much left to nitpick.
Bottom line:
Boise is built for December. They are deep, balanced, and brutally efficient. When they stay disciplined, no one in the Mountain West can play on their level.
2) San Diego State (5-1, 2-0)
Why No. 2: San Diego State doesn’t just defend, it squeezes the life out of you. The Aztecs allow 259.7 yards and 12.2 points per game (both best in the MW, top-10 nationally). Third downs? Opponents are stuck at 25.8%. They’re No. 1 in rush defense (2.81 Y/A) and pass defense (164.0 YPG).
Defensive identity: Classic SDSU. Physical, disciplined, and mean. The rush is by committee but hits hard: Trey White (4.0 sacks) and August Salvati (3.5) win one-on-ones and keep edges clean. The secondary is even nastier. Chris Johnson (3 INT, 146 return yards) is playing at an All-MW level; his 97-yard pick-six vs Cal is the league’s longest defensive score. Dalesean Staley (28 tackles, 1 INT) pairs perfectly, and together that DB room leads the league in passes defended per game (Johnson 1.50; Staley 0.83).
Special-teams edge: The hidden yardage is all Aztecs. K Gabriel Plascencia (10/10, L-53) hasn’t missed. P Hunter Green (46.6 avg) flips fields and hands the defense short runways to choke momentum. Field position is basically part of the scheme.
Offense, by design: Calculated, patient, low-risk. RB Lucky Sutton (531, 6 TD, 5.1 YPC) drives the pace and the clock. QB Jayden Denegal (1,097, 7 TD, 65.9%) is efficient, not reckless. If it turns into a track meet, they can sputter, but that’s the point: they don’t let it.
Bottom line: The blueprint hasn’t changed—just sharpened. SDSU strangles drives, wins specials, and grinds you down. Not pretty. Extremely effective. In a volatile league, the team that can choke out chaos usually climbs.
3) UNLV (6-1, 2-1)
Why No. 3:
No one in the Mountain West lights up a scoreboard like UNLV. The Rebels are averaging 37.1 points per game, best in the league, and sit in the top three in both total offense (447.1 yards per game) and yards per play (6.9). Quarterback Anthony Colandrea has become the face of Dan Mullen’s revival, 2,028 yards, 16 total touchdowns, 68% completions, running the offense with the calm of a veteran and the flair of a gunslinger. His control was never clearer than in the 51–48 shootout with Air Force, where he threw for 377 yards, averaged 11.4 yards per attempt, and hit the longest play in the Mountain West this season, an 86-yard strike that left the Falcons’ secondary stunned.
The ground game adds the punch. Jai’Den “Jet” Thomas (615 yards, 7 TDs, 7.4 per carry) is the league’s best one-cut runner, turning short gaps into fireworks, while Jaden Bradley (528 yards, 3 TDs) remains the steady hand. A chain-mover who wins off timing and leverage. Together they’ve built one of the most efficient scoring machines in the country, with 30-plus points in six of seven games and an offense capable of flipping the field — and the score in seconds.
Why they’re dangerous:
Mullen’s offense hits every note: tempo, spacing, and precision. It stretches defenses sideline to sideline before hitting them deep, forcing mismatches everywhere. When the Rebels are in rhythm, the game feels like a sprint where the other team can’t catch its breath.
What breaks:
Defense, and plenty of it. UNLV ranks 11th in total defense (461.1 YPG), 11th in scoring defense (33.4 PPG), and dead last against the run (204.7 YPG, 6.05 per carry). They’ve trailed in six of seven games despite the record, surviving on takeaways, with a league-best 10 interceptions, with Aamaris Brown (4 INTs, 2 pick-sixes) and Laterrance Welch (3 INTs) providing the spark.
Red flag:
Penalties. The Rebels average 76.9 yards per game in flags, most in the Mountain West, and the timing of those mistakes has been brutal, stalling drives and extending opponents’ chances.
The bottom line:
UNLV is the league’s thrill ride, a must-watch offense hiding a defense that can’t stay out of its own way. When everything clicks, they look unbeatable. When the turnovers stop or the flags pile up, even fireworks can fade fast.
4) Fresno State (5-2, 2-1)
Why No. 4:
Fresno State doesn’t win on style points; it wins on steadiness. The Bulldogs make every possession feel deliberate, built on defense, field position, and a quarterback who doesn’t force the issue. They’re allowing just 311.9 yards per game, second-best in the Mountain West, and that discipline carries over to the offense. E.J. Warner has been exactly what Jeff Tedford needs: 1,486 yards, 10 touchdowns, and nearly 69% completions, a control piece who keeps Fresno out of bad situations. The ground game follows suit: Rayshon Luke (384 yards, 5 TDs) and Bryson Donelson (405 yards, 3 TDs) split touches and punish missed tackles. Their 351-yard rushing opener still stands as one of the league’s top single-game efforts.
Offensive core:
Warner doesn’t wow you with arm strength, but he manages tempo as well as anyone in the conference. Josiah Freeman (24 catches, 300 yards, 4 TDs) headlines a rotation of tight ends and backs that fits the system’s rhythm, short, sharp, and mistake-free. Fresno doesn’t try to chase shootouts; it dares you to make the first mistake and usually cashes in when you do.
Defensive backbone:
This is a veteran group that knows how to close. Linebacker Jadon Pearson (58 tackles) and defensive lineman Finn Claypool (3.5 sacks) form the spine of a front that wins the snap count and holds the line. In the back end, corner Simeon Harris (2 INTs) keeps plays in front and limits run-after-catch damage. The Bulldogs are holding opponents to just 5.7 yards per play, which explains why they’ve stayed in control late in games.
Special teams edge:
Even when the games tighten, special teams tilt the field their way. Jaden Carrillo’s 42-yard punt-return touchdown and kicker Dylan Lynch’s perfect extra-point mark (23/23) keep Fresno winning the margins, a major reason they’ve been so reliable in close finishes.
Bottom line:
Fresno doesn’t dominate; it dictates. The Bulldogs play clean, close, and cold-blooded, waiting for their opponent to blink first, and almost always making it count.
5) Hawai‘i (6-2, 3-1)
Why No. 5:
The Rainbow Warriors are built on timing, spacing, and efficiency. QB Micah Alejado leads the Mountain West’s most polished passing attack, 1,757 yards, 65.6% completions, 17 TDs, total team-wide orchestrating drives that rarely stall. Hawai‘i has delivered two of the league’s top three single-game passing totals (457 at Air Force, 413 vs Utah State) and ranks top-3 overall in passing offense (295.9 YPG).
Offensive Core:
Alejado’s trust in his receivers makes the attack hum. Pofele Ashlock (48-494-6) and Jackson Harris (29-467-5) give Hawai‘i two go-to options capable of stretching defenses vertically or working the seams, while the run game does just enough to keep secondaries honest.
Defensive Identity:
The front four sets a tone that’s tougher than Hawai‘i’s record once suggested. Jackie Johnson III (6.0 sacks) and De’Jon Benton (4.0) anchor a group that generates consistent pressure without needing exotic blitz looks. It’s a physical complement to an otherwise finesse offense.
Special Teams Excellence:
Kansei Matsuzawa might be the best specialist in the country right now, 20-for-20 on field goals, with a long of 52 yards, and 83 total points (10.4 per game). He’s turned multiple drives into three-pointers when others would come up empty.
Hawai‘i doesn’t overwhelm you with raw power; it beats you with precision. A quarterback who stays on rhythm, a front that quietly wins up front, and a kicker who never misses have turned the Warriors into one of the Mountain West’s most complete, dependable teams.
6) Utah State (4-3, 2-1)
Why No. 6:
Utah State finally looks like a group coming together. It’s not pretty every week, but the offense has real life to it. Bryson Barnes has grown up fast, a steady hand who’s thrown for a little over sixteen hundred yards and thirteen scores while keeping mistakes down. He’s averaging close to nine yards a pass, which says plenty about how confident he is letting it rip. His rhythm with Braden Pegan and Brady Boyd gives Utah State an identity again, with quick strikes, smart spacing, and just enough poise to hurt you deep.
The run game has found its piece, too. Miles Davis is that tempo-setter, sitting around 450 yards on the year and breaking enough first-down runs to keep defenses honest. That balance has pushed the Aggies into the league’s top four in both total offense and scoring. When they’re hot, it’s obvious the 627-yard night against McNeese and the Air Force game, where they averaged over 13 yards per attempt, both looked like glimpses of what this system can really do.
Defensive core:
The defense isn’t dominating, but it’s starting to matter. John Miller is everywhere: a leading tackler, six sacks, a tone-setter, a heartbeat, all of it. You can see why coaches rave about him. Around him, Noah Avinger has been opportunistic with three interceptions, and Bronson Olevao Jr. is finally providing edge pressure that actually changes drives. They’re not locking teams down yet, but they’re no longer a liability.
Where it wobbles:
Third downs. They can’t stay on the field. Utah State sits near the bottom nationally, converting under thirty percent, and that’s crushed a few winnable drives. You can feel the rhythm fade. Good start, good call, then nothing.
Bottom line:
Utah State’s still a coin flip: brilliant one drive, lost the next. But when Barnes is cooking and Miller is flying around, this team looks dangerous. They’ve got speed, swagger, and a little bit of chaos, the kind that makes everyone nervous on the other sideline.
7) New Mexico (4-3, 1-2)
Why No. 7:
New Mexico isn’t flashy, but it’s finally figured out how to win games it used to lose. The Lobos can beat you in a few different ways now, through the air when they have to, or on the ground when it matters. They’ve gone over 340 passing yards twice (against New Mexico State and San José State), and still lean on a bruising, clock-chewing run game when the situation calls for it.
The spark comes from Jacoryn Bankston, who’s turned into the heartbeat of their offense and special teams. He’s piled up more than 760 all-purpose yards and owns the only kickoff return touchdown in the Mountain West. Every week, he’s the guy who flips the field or changes the tone of a drive.
Defensive identity:
The defense plays with a chip. Jaxton Eck is everywhere on the field. He is second in the league with 75 tackles and averaging double digits per game, while Keyshawn James-Newby has started living in the backfield with 4.5 sacks and constant pressure. They’re not a shutdown group, but they fight for every series and make you earn first downs. That’s a big shift from the teams New Mexico used to put out there.
Hidden yards, real impact:
The Lobos win a lot of the plays that don’t show up in headlines. Their kick-return unit ranks first in the conference, highlighted by a 59-yard average at Boise State and that 100-yard return touchdown earlier this year. It’s those kinds of plays that steal possessions and swing field position, which is exactly what keeps them in games against better rosters.
Bottom line:
New Mexico plays grown-up football now: physical, patient, and hard to rattle. They don’t win pretty, but they win more often because everything fits together. The Lobos have carved out a real identity built on grit and small edges, and that’s why they’re climbing.
8) Air Force (2-5, 1-4)
Why No. 8:
After weeks of inconsistency, Air Force finally looks like Air Force again. The Falcons have recommitted to the ground game, pounding out 603 total yards (83 plays) in that wild loss at UNLV and following with 330+ rushing yards to close out Wyoming. The triple-option rhythm is back, deliberate, punishing, and perfectly suited to shorten games.
Explosive Balance:
While the ground attack leads the way, the Falcons’ passing efficiency has quietly returned as a lethal complement. They’ve produced multiple top-10 single-game marks in yards per catch and attempt, highlighted by a 278-yard, 10-catch outburst (27.8 YPC) vs. Hawai‘i, showing that when defenses bite, they can make them pay instantly.
What Breaks:
That defense, though, is still a problem, last in total defense (484.1 YPG) and unable to consistently get off the field. Even when the offense controls tempo, opponents have found ways to string together explosive drives.
Bottom Line:
Air Force has rediscovered its offensive soul, methodical, physical, and explosive when needed. If the defense ever catches up, the Falcons’ trademark discipline and efficiency could make them far more dangerous than their record suggests.
9) Wyoming (3-4, 1-2)
Why No. 9:
Wyoming still knows who it is. Hard defense, long drives, and a front that leans on you for four quarters. It’s the same formula that’s carried them for years. The trouble? It only works when the offense holds up its side.
Defensive identity:
This defense is a grind to play against. They’ll drag you into the mud and dare you to move the chains. Wyoming sits near the top of the Mountain West in total defense and gives up just under four yards a carry, vintage stuff. Up front, Ben Florentine keeps wrecking pockets (five sacks), and Tyce Westland adds steady pressure. The group has accumulated fifteen sacks in total, forcing teams to earn every inch. Brayden Johnson might be the heartbeat. At forty-plus tackles, a pair of picks, and even a sixty-five-yard touchdown return. The secondary doesn’t wow anyone, but it keeps making quiet, winning plays.
Offensive limits:
Then there’s the other side. It’s just not clicking. Wyoming sits way down the list in total yards and big plays. Kaden Anderson has been fine: about 1500 yards and nine touchdowns, but the turnovers and empty red-zone trips sting. Samuel Harris can pop a run here or there, close to four hundred yards at six a clip, but it comes and goes. Too many drives end with a field goal or a punt, and the play-calling near the goal line still feels heavy.
Bottom line:
Wyoming can make any game ugly, which fits them, but that’s a hard way to survive in this league now. The defense keeps carrying the weight. The offense just hasn’t caught up. Until they find some downfield spark, they’ll keep living in that same space, close, physical, and always one play short.
10) San José State (2-5, 1-2)
Why No. 10: The Spartans live and die through the air. When the passing game clicks, San José State can go toe-to-toe with anyone in the Mountain West. When it stalls, there’s little else to fall back on.
Offensive Breakdown:
Quarterback Walker Eget has been the centerpiece of Ken Niumatalolo’s offense, throwing for 2,149 yards, 15 touchdowns, and just four interceptions while completing 60.7% of his passes. He leads the league in total passing yards and ranks among the national top 20 in completions and touchdowns. His chemistry with WR Danny Scudero has defined SJSU’s season. The junior wideout leads the Mountain West in every major receiving category with 56 receptions for 870 yards and eight touchdowns. Together, they’ve produced multiple 300-yard passing performances, including a 473-yard outburst at Stanford, the single-game high in the conference this year.
Complementary pieces like Kyri Shoels (478 yards, 2 TDs) and Leland Smith (386 yards, 3 TDs) round out a deep receiver group that makes the Spartans a nightmare in space. Even with modest rushing totals (803 team rush yards, 4.4 YPC), the passing volume keeps them in every game.
Defensive Reality:
The problem, as always, is on the other side of the ball. SJSU is giving up 6.3 yards per play, struggling to get off the field, and generating only 15 team sacks in seven games. LB Jordan Pollard (56 tackles) anchors a defense that’s constantly overextended, while CB Jalen Bainer (3 INTs) provides flashes of playmaking ability that too often go to waste when the pass rush fades.
Bottom Line:
This is one of the most entertaining and frustrating teams in the Mountain West. Eget and Scudero headline the league’s most prolific air raid, but a leaky defense and inconsistent situational execution have flipped winnable games into heartbreakers. The Spartans are talented enough to beat anyone, but undisciplined to lose to anyone, too.
11) Colorado State (2-5, 1-2)
Why No. 11:
Colorado State looks like a team that should be good. The talent is there, maybe more than people realize, but every week feels the same. They hang around, make a few big plays, then the offense sputters and the frustration builds. The Rams just fired their head coach, and honestly, it might’ve been the only move left.
The good:
The defense and special teams continue to deliver. Owen Long leads the entire country in tackles (93), Jace Bellah has three interceptions, and Bryan Hansen keeps booming punts past midfield (46.6 avg, 12 over 50). Javion Kinnard gave them a 91-yard punt-return touchdown and a spark this team badly needed. If games were decided by effort and field position, CSU would be fine.
The problem:
Points. Or the lack of them. The Rams are averaging just 21.9 per game, stuck near the bottom of the league. Jackson Brousseau has been solid (741 yards, 6 TD, 0 INT), but the offense can’t sustain drives or finish once it gets close. The rhythm’s off, and the confidence is worse.
Bottom line:
They’re a team full of pieces that don’t quite fit. Great defense, strong specialists, and an offense that can’t cash in. Maybe the coaching change lights a fire. Until it does, CSU stays what it’s been all year: talented, tough, and completely unpredictable.
12) UNR (1-6, 0-3)
Why No. 12:
Reno’s defense keeps them in games, but the offense keeps making sure they lose them. Nobody should be shocked; it’s the same story on repeat. The quarterback situation is a mess, the play-calling’s worse, and it already feels like another year where they don’t win a single Mountain West game. Jeff Choate’s hire looks worse by the week.
Defense:
This side actually shows up. Dylan Labarbera is one of the league’s most active defenders, with 59 tackles, 14 TFL, and 5.5 sacks, while Jonathan Maldonado adds 4.0 sacks and a pick-six. The secondary, led by E.J. Smith (two INT) and Edward Rhambo, holds up early and plays with pride even when the offense gives them nothing.
Special teams:
Solid, maybe even elite. Joe McFadden has been steady at 13-for-16 on field goals, and Bailey Ettridge averages 43.9 yards per punt. They don’t beat themselves with penalties, either, a minor miracle considering the rest of this roster’s execution.
Offense:
That’s where the collapse starts. Carter Jones has brought a little stability (65%, 517 yards, 3 TD), but there’s no spark. Nevada averages 15.6 points and barely 300 yards a game, both dead last in the conference: no big plays, no tempo, no hope.
Bottom line:
Reno plays hard, tackles well, and kicks fine, but it doesn’t matter. Until this offense learns how to finish a drive, they’ll stay right where they are: at the bottom, watching everyone else pull away.
ESPN FPI snapshot (Oct. 21)
Team | W-L | FPI | Nat’l RK | Proj W-L | Win Conf % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Boise State | 5–2 | +7.3 | 44 | 9.9–3.0 | 71.6% |
UNLV | 6–1 | –0.8 | 68 | 9.8–2.7 | 13.5% |
San Diego State | 5–1 | –1.2 | 71 | 8.6–3.7 | 9.8% |
Hawai‘i | 6–2 | –7.0 | 93 | 7.8–4.3 | 2.2% |
Fresno State | 5–2 | –7.1 | 94 | 7.1–4.9 | 1.1% |
Utah State | 4–3 | –5.0 | 87 | 6.3–5.7 | 1.3% |
New Mexico | 4–3 | –5.0 | 88 | 6.6–5.4 | 0.4% |
San José State | 2–5 | –7.4 | 95 | 4.8–7.2 | 0.2% |
Colorado State | 2–5 | –8.7 | 100 | 3.8–8.2 | 0.0% |
Air Force | 2–5 | –9.3 | 102 | 3.8–8.2 | 0.0% |
Wyoming | 3–4 | –9.7 | 103 | 5.1–6.9 | 0.0% |
Nevada | 1–6 | –17.2 | 127 | 1.8–10.2 | 0.0% |
(FPI is forward-looking; Boise’s title odds reflect schedule leverage + efficiency trend.)
Final word
Boise owns the league’s most bankable path: explosives + efficiency.
San Diego State owns the league’s most reliable floor: defense + specialists.
UNLV owns the league’s loudest ceiling and its narrowest ledge.
From here, November will reward discipline (SDSU), balance (Boise), and turnover luck (UNLV). The margins are thin, the explosives are loud, and every hidden yard on third down, punts, and penalties will decide who’s holding the trophy in December.
