Mountain West Power Rankings Week 4

There isn’t a great team in the Mountain West right now. There are good teams, dangerous teams, and deeply flawed teams. Every Saturday in this league looks more like chaos than hierarchy. So here’s how I’ve got them stacked after Week 4 with the computers saying one thing, the media saying another, and my ballot cutting through both.

PFF: 7.8 projected wins | MW title 20% | CFP 11%

Boise didn’t exactly lock anybody down at Air Force. The Falcons gashed them for 514 total yards, including an eyebrow‑raising 246 through the air a shocking number for a triple‑option outfit. But Dylan Riley ran wild, piling up 171 yards and four touchdowns, and Boise escaped with a 49–37 win. Survive and advance.

Media wasn’t impressed. NSN dropped them to #3, pointing out how fortunate they were. Mountain West Connection slid them to #4, flat‑out saying their defense doesn’t look championship‑caliber. The Casper Star‑Tribune and SI kept them stable in the #2 spot after the bye.

PFF’s simulations are lukewarm on the win total, but they still see Boise with the second best path to a league crown at 20%.

My ballot? They’re still #1 until somebody in the Mountain West takes them down. You don’t lose the belt on points.

PFF: 9.7 projected wins | MW title 23% | CFP 14%

UNLV’s 41–38 win at Miami (OH) was the full Rebel experience. A kick return TD and pick 6 had them in a two‑score hole. Then they ripped off 17 unanswered in the fourth and won it on Ramon Villela’s clutch kick with 15 seconds left.

Media crowned them. SI, NSN, MWC Connection, Casper Star‑Tribune all had UNLV as their #1. At the same time, MWC Connection and SI underlined the obvious: the record of their opponents is 1–13. It’s hard to argue that résumé.

The models love them. Best projected win total in the league, 99% lock for a bowl, even a single percentage point of playoff hope. But that SOS is 9th lowest in the entire country for what has been played and 36th worst remaining.

This is why I keep them second, not first. They win. They’re fun. But until they can prove it against Boise or Utah State, I’m not calling them the league’s standard.

PFF: 8.6 wins | MW title 18%

It wasn’t pretty, but Fresno delivered in Honolulu. K’Vion Thunderbird’s pick‑six gave them an eight‑point cushion, and a stand on Hawaii’s late two‑point try sealed the 23–21 win. The offense still struggles to sustain drives, but this defense has a knack for flipping games with takeaways.

Murray at NSN bumped Fresno up to #2, giving their defense credit for carrying the day. MWC Connection and SI both kept them in that #3 slot, valuing reliability.

PFF has them closer to nine wins, but only 4% odds to take the Mountain West, a nod to their ceiling being limited.

For me, Fresno is a lock in the Top 3. They don’t wow you, but they’re the safest pick to punch their ticket come December.

PFF: 6.8 wins | MW title 10%

Utah State has been fireworks with a faulty fuse. Against McNeese, Bryson Barnes hung 293 passing yards, three TDs, 128 rushing yards, and two more on the ground. The guy has 14 total touchdowns in four games he’s carrying the Aggies on his shoulder pads.

The computers, though, aren’t buying in. PFF pegs them as basically a six‑win team with just a 10% shot at the title.

Media can’t figure them out either. Mountain West Connection crowned them #2, NSN left them no higher than #6, SI’s national desk has them anywhere from #2 to #6 depending on the week.

So what are they? For me, fourth. Barnes alone is worth a couple of wins above projection. But until the defense steps up against someone better than McNeese, the Aggies are exciting but not yet fully trusted.

PFF: 5.6 wins | MW title 4%

On paper, a 37‑20 loss at Colorado looks like a beat-down. The Cowboys trailed by 25 and rallied late to cut it to 10. Credit them for life, but it was still another game where Wyoming’s offense dug a hole that the defense couldn’t fully patch.

Casper’s hometown paper gave Wyoming some slack, keeping them up at #3. NSN was harsher, dropping them to #8. Mountain West Connection weighed out the middle at #7.

PFF tells the truth: this is a mid‑pack group projected for a five‑to‑six win ceiling, with basically no real title shot.

I’ve got them at #5. They’re competent, they’re tough, but unless something flips on offense, they’re not sniffing the top tier. UNLV next will show us if Wyoming is a dark horse or just middleweight filler.

PFF: 6.9 wins | MW title 6%

The Lobos rested in Week 4, but the echo of that UCLA upset is still bouncing. Damon Bankston destroyed the Bruins with 154 yards rushing and a 43‑yard receiving touchdown, and suddenly the Lobos look like a whole new program.

Media has been kind. SI and the CST both hyped the UCLA win as potentially transformational. NSN predicted they would be mid-table, which is practically a parade float compared to how they viewed them in years past.

PFF is also showing respect: nearly seven projected wins, a coin flip’s chance of bowling.

For me, they land at #6. Not contenders, not cannon fodder, but a team that actually needs to be taken seriously every Saturday. That’s a new tier for UNM.

PFF: 6.7 wins | MW title 7%

That was a statement. Cal walked in undefeated, left on the other side of a 34‑0 beat-down. SDSU’s defense forced three turnovers, scored on a 97‑yard pick‑six, and completely suffocated their ACC opponent. A week after being mauled by Washington State, the Aztecs flipped the script entirely.

Chris Murray launched them six spots up to #4, calling it the Mountain West’s best win of the year. Mountain West Connection agreed, dubbing it the “best MW performance so far.” SI was slower to react, but everyone noticed.

The analytics stay modest: seven wins, a bowl team, not a title threat.

For me, #7 is fair. SDSU is volatility embodied. When they hit, they explode. When they miss, they crater. I’ll give them credit, but I need consistency before I move them further up.

PFF: 5.3 wins | MW title <1%

Turnovers are killing Hawaii. They lead the nation with 12 giveaways, including three back‑breaking interceptions by Micah Alejado in the two‑point loss to Fresno. The offense is explosive enough to scare everybody, and reckless enough to beat themselves every week.

NSN kept them at #7 but highlighted that they cannot keep handing the ball away. MWC dropped them down three spots. CST left them low at #10. The frustration is consistent.

The projections see a five‑win team that’ll flirt with bowl eligibility if they can just stop coughing it up.

I leave them at #8 dangerous as hell, but reliability is nonexistent.

PFF: 4.9 wins | MW title <1%

The Falcons can’t stop anybody. In back‑to‑back weeks, Utah State and Boise hung 49 points on them. Yes, they showed flashes offensively Liam Szarka’s 246 passing yards against Boise were their most in four years, but it didn’t matter with a defense this porous.

NSN moved them down in lockstep with their record. MWC Connection noted bluntly: “not good.” SI and CST pointed to turnovers as a recurring issue.

PFF sees under five wins, which means bowl hopes are already dim.

On my ballot? No higher than ninth. Two conference losses already have them essentially buried before October.

PFF: 5.3 wins | MW title 5%

This wasn’t vintage Spartan football. Trailing Idaho at home, SJSU rallied with a late Floyd Chalk IV touchdown and a 48‑yard Denis Lynch field goal with 8 seconds left to escape, 31–28. Survive, sure. Inspire confidence? Not really.

Media gave them a minimal bump. NSN parked them around #10, MWC put them #9, CST had them a touch higher at #8. But no one believes they’re dangerous.

PFF says five to six wins, coin‑flip to bowl.

They’re tenth for me. You scrape by an FCS opponent at home, you don’t get rewarded in my book.

PFF: 5.6 wins | MW title 6%

This was coaching malpractice. CSU kicked the tying PAT against UTSA with under :30 left. A penalty moved it closer. They went for two from the one with their third‑stringer at QB and blew it. 17–16 loss. Brutal.

Murray ripped the decision in NSN, spotlighting a quarterback controversy that has now pushed Jackson Brousseau into the starting role. MWC Connection admitted the “dark horse contender” label looks dumb in hindsight.

PFF still gifts them a five‑to‑six win projection and a sliver of title odds, but it feels optimistic.

They stay near the basement for me. One play call turned a shot at 2–1 into another blowtorch to fan morale.

PFF: 3.4 wins | 11% shot at 6 | MW title 1%

Two straight weeks, the Pack had a shot, and two straight weeks they dissolved. Blowing a 13‑0 lead to Middle Tennessee in a 14–13 loss was bad. Leading Western Kentucky at halftime only to score zero the rest of the way was worse. Over the last two weeks, they've been outscored by a score of 35-3 in the fourth quarter.

Media has them nailed to the bottom. Murray called them out for fourth‑quarter collapses. MWC said they “barely showed up.” Casper Star‑Tribune simply said “choked.”

PFF projects fewer than 4 wins, with only an 11% chance at a bowl.

Hard stop: Nevada is 12th until proved otherwise.

Here’s the split:

This isn’t about elite teams. It’s about great chaos. And for the Mountain West, that’s exactly the brand.