Mountain West Picks - Week 9

Eight weeks in, and the Mountain West has officially hit the separation stretch. Boise and SDSU continue to win with efficiency, physicality, and time of possession, while UNLV and Utah State seek to create variance with tempo and big plays. Colorado State’s hidden-yardage advantage is quietly one of the most consistent edges in the league, and New Mexico’s special teams might be the most valuable unit outside San Diego County.

After a 4-1 Week 8, the straight-up mark sits at 46-17 (.730), and the first week with ATS/totals picks landed 4-2; same format as always: the matchup, the metrics, the pick.

If football games were decided by efficiency charts alone, this would be over by halftime. Boise is the league’s most balanced offense: 478.6 yards per game, 6.6 yards per play, and top-2 on third down (47.5%). They’re also the most sustainable: #1 in first downs (23.7 per game), #1 in time of possession (33:12), and top-3 in sacks allowed (12) despite a high-volume passing game.

QB Maddux Madsen has thrown for 1,823 yards, 15 TDs, and averaged 8.2 YPA, pairing with RB Dylan Riley’s 695 yards (8.1 per carry) and six touchdowns. Riley and WR Chris Marshall (440 yards) give Boise two of the conference’s ten best explosive-play producers.

Nevada, on the other hand, is still in identity search mode. The Wolf Pack averages just 302 yards per game and 15.6 points, ranks #11 on third down (33.3%), and has the fewest first downs per game (16.8) in the Mountain West. They do protect the QB well (9 sacks allowed), but the lack of early-down efficiency forces too many third-and-longs.

The matchup gap is enormous: Boise’s offense gains +176 more yards per game and holds opponents to 5.7 yards per play, while Nevada’s defense allows 28.0 PPG and nearly 375 YPG.

Boise wins through structure, not flash, but this week, it might look like both.
Pick: Boise State

If you like trench metrics, this one’s fascinating. Both teams sit tied for third in the Mountain West with 16 sacks, but the key difference is where the pressure hits: Utah State has allowed 25 sacks (most in the conference), while New Mexico’s line has given up only 12.

That protection gap feeds into two key stats: Utah State converts just 29.9% on third down (last), while New Mexico converts 42.5% (7th) and ranks second against the run (3.50 Y/A, 116.4 YPG).

QB Bryson Barnes gives Utah State explosiveness (13 TD, 8.8 YPA) but faces a defense built to remove vertical shots. The Lobos keep everything in front, allowing just 20 rush TDs and 5.6 yards per play, and balance that with one of the MW’s best special-teams units:

Bankston is the x-factor: 762 all-purpose yards (108.9 per game), a true three-phase player who flips fields without the offense needing to.

Utah State can score in bunches, but can’t stay clean long enough to control tempo. Expect New Mexico’s defense and special teams to tilt every possession.
Pick: New Mexico

The Mountain West’s cleanest defensive profile meets one of its sloppiest passing attacks. San Diego State’s metrics are unreal through six games:

QB Jayden Denegal (65.9%, 8.7 YPA, 7 TD, 2 INT) and RB Lucky Sutton (531 yards, 6 TD, 5.1 YPC) keep the Aztec offense efficient but mistake-free. The line has allowed just 7 sacks (fewest in MW), and kicker Gabriel Plascencia remains automatic (10/10 FG, long of 53).

Fresno’s E.J. Warner is productive (1,486 yards, 10 TD) but erratic (9 INT, 7.4 YPA). The Bulldogs’ defense is strong overall (311.9 YPG allowed, 5.2 YPP), yet their red-zone and explosive-play defense has leaked 20 TDs allowed and 39.8% 3rd-down conversion.

San Diego State doesn’t just defend better. They control games. The Aztecs are top-5 in time of possession (31:33), top-3 in net punting (42.6), and elite in return margin behind Jordan Napier, who leads the conference in all-purpose yardage (130.0 YPG) and has both receiving and punt-return touchdowns.

In a low-possession, field-position game, the better defense and cleaner QB play always win.
Pick: San Diego State

Two programs heading in opposite special-teams directions. Wyoming’s offense remains an efficiency puzzle: 20.0 PPG, 365 YPG, and bottom-3 in both scoring and yards per play (5.5 YPP). Their defense holds up (348.1 YPG allowed), but the lack of offensive explosives leaves no cushion.

Colorado State, meanwhile, lives off hidden yards:

Their offense (332 YPG) isn’t flashy, but it doesn’t have to be. With that special-teams advantage, every drive starts 6–8 yards better than the opponent’s. That equates to nearly a field goal per half, which is more than enough to cover a one-possession spread.

Wyoming’s passing offense (211 YPG, 6.7 YPA) and lack of turnover creation (4 INT all season) can’t separate from teams that match physicality. CSU’s defensive backs rank top-4 in INTs (7), and the Rams have allowed just 9 passing TDs all season.

This is a grind, but field position and takeaways keep Colorado State alive into the fourth quarter.
Pick: Colorado State

New Mexico ML (–146)
The cleanest matchup play of the week. UNM’s protection advantage (12 sacks allowed vs 25), 3rd-down efficiency (42.5% vs 29.9%), and league-best special teams tilt every drive in their favor.

San Diego State / Fresno State Over 47.5 (–110)
The number’s short. SDSU’s efficiency (top-5 in scoring drives per possession) plus Plascencia’s 10/10 FGs and Fresno’s volatility with Warner’s turnovers create extra possessions. Both kickers are perfect inside 50, and both teams are aggressive on 4th down.

Colorado State +5.5 (–110)
The hidden-yardage edge (net-punt gap of +9 yards) is massive, and Wyoming hasn’t won by more than one score since September. CSU’s special teams are worth half a touchdown on their own.

Boise still runs the conference in balance and depth, but San Diego State’s defense is playing championship football. New Mexico’s returns are stealing entire possessions, and Colorado State’s specialists have turned every game into a field-position math problem.

Eight weeks in, efficiency beats explosiveness. The league’s best teams aren’t the ones scoring fastest — they’re the ones forcing you to play on their clock.