Five weeks in, the Mountain West remains gloriously unpredictable. UNLV kept its perfect start intact in a snow globe, Boise took its swing in South Bend, Fresno keeps dragging games onto its defensive script, and San Diego State is back to squeezing the life out of opponents. After a 5–1 Week 6, the straight-up mark sits at 38–14. Game winners only. Here’s the Week 7 slate, with the same quick-hit cadence you’re used to: a scene-setter, a tight stat read, and the pick.
Fresno State at Colorado State (Friday, 8:00 p.m. ET – CBSSN)
Fresno’s identity has traveled all fall: top‑2 in the league in scoring and total defense, nine interceptions already, double‑digit sacks out of disguised looks, and just enough efficiency on offense to make it hold. Colorado State hasn’t found the gear to match as they are bottom‑tier scoring and total offense, and protection that’s been pierced for 14 sacks. To flip it, the Rams need short fields and a Lloyd Avant jolt in the return game. More likely, the Bulldogs keep it on their terms.
Pick: Fresno State
Air Force at UNLV (Saturday, 2:30 p.m. ET – CBSSN)
On paper, 5–0 versus 1–4 reads like a look‑ahead. In reality, this is a danger game. Air Force’s offense is not 1–4 football: No. 1 in Mountain West rushing, No. 1 on third down, and a vertical play‑action bite that averages over 21 yards per completion with QB Liam Szarka and WR/KR Cade Harris. The leak is on defense, where they are last in third‑down stops, 71% completions allowed at explosive depth, just two interceptions which is exactly where UNLV lives. The Rebels’ money‑down edge (49% on 3rd, 83% on 4th), takeaway talent (tied for the league lead in INTs with Aamaris Brown pacing the conference), and special‑teams juice (two punt‑return TDs, Cam Brown flipping fields) map directly to the Falcons’ soft spots. Treat 1–4 like 10–0, win the middle eight, and hold serve at Homecoming.
Pick: UNLV
San José State at Wyoming (Saturday, 6:00 p.m. ET – CBSSN)
The Mountain West’s cleanest pass protection meets its most disciplined coverage shell at 7,220 feet. San José State throws it better than anyone by volume with Walker Eget and Danny Scudero (league leader in receiving), and the Spartans have allowed just five sacks all year. Wyoming answers with a top‑2 pass defense, sturdy scoring profile, and the pace suppression that comes with Laramie in October. This is a field‑position game where one explosive or one short field decides it. At home, the Cowboys’ defense usually travels better than timing routes do.
Pick: Wyoming
New Mexico at Boise State (Saturday, 8:45 p.m. ET – FS1)
Calling my upset shot here. Boise remains the league’s most balanced by yardage: No. 1 total offense, top‑3 against the pass and the trenches are sound (pressure without sacrificing coverage; few sacks allowed). But New Mexico is ahead of schedule on offense: right around 30 a game with Jack Layne north of 69% completions, Damon Bankston’s 6.7 a pop, and legitimate kick‑return juice. The path is narrow but real: land two or three play‑action chunkers, stay clean in the red zone, and avoid the turnover tax on the blue turf. Boise wants UNLV and is caught looking ahead. Live dog, called outright.
Pick: New Mexico
San Diego State at Nevada (Saturday, 9:30 p.m. ET – CBSSN)
Comfort food for the Aztecs. San Diego State is back to boa‑constrictor ball: best pass defense in the conference, top‑tier sack rate, elite net punting, and a ground game that sits on leads. Nevada’s front can flash (tied for the league lead in sacks), but the passing attack is at the conference floor in yards and efficiency, exactly the wrong matchup into SDSU’s coverage shell. In a low‑possession script, the team that wins hidden yardage and denies explosives wins. That’s the Aztecs’ lane.
Pick: San Diego State
Utah State at Hawai‘i (Saturday, 10:59 p.m. ET – Spectrum)
The late‑night chaos pairing delivers again. Utah State is tied for the league lead in scoring with Bryson Barnes distributing explosives, but both teams have worn too many sacks, turning this into a clean‑pocket referendum. Hawai‘i’s defense is quietly top‑3 in total yards allowed, top‑4 against the pass, and tied for the league lead in sacks; at home, with travel and the window tilting their way, the ‘Bows’ edge rush can swing two possessions. First to a couple of clean explosives wins it.
Pick: Hawaii
Final Word:
Week 6: 5–1 (miss: New Mexico at San José State)
Season: 38–14 (straight‑up)
UNLV’s Homecoming isn’t about headlines; it’s about avoiding the one lapse Air Force is built to punish. Boise is still the yardage standard, Fresno the grim reaper, SDSU the squeeze, and the island window remains appointment chaos.
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