Mountain West Picks – Week 6

The Mountain West has been five weeks of pure chaos. Boise State roaring back to form, UNLV undefeated but untested, San Diego State still winning 6–3 football games, and New Mexico suddenly relevant again. After going 5–2 last week, the season record sits at 33–13 straight‑up. Week 6 brings conference showdowns and one national measuring stick in South Bend. Here’s the slate:

New Mexico has been the surprise story of the year: a blowout win over UCLA at the Rose Bowl and a defense that has clamped down against better competition. QB Jack Layne has been shockingly efficient (69% comp, 7 TDs), and linebacker Jaxton Eck is averaging over 10 tackles per game.

San José State leads the league in passing with QB Walker Eget (1,187 yds, nearly 300 per game) but bleeds 422 yards per outing on defense. At home, the Spartans should put up points, but New Mexico’s balance makes them the safer pick.Pick: New Mexico

The Rams haven’t scored more than 21 against any FBS opponent, ranking near the bottom nationally in points per game (15.3). LB Owen Long is a tackling machine (MW leader at 13 per game), but CSU’s offense hasn’t backed the defense.

San Diego State is the opposite: worst offense in the MW (317 YPG), best defense by far (237 YPG allowed, 3.6 per play). The Aztecs can win games “ugly,” and they already proved it with a 6–3 win at NIU. At home, they’ll grind the Rams into submission.Pick: San Diego State

Air Force is Jekyll and Hyde. They average nearly 38 points per game and 470 yards, but their defense is last in the league, giving up 466.5 yards and almost 39 points per contest.

Navy has been the model of efficiency, starting 4-0 and punching above its weight with a physical offensive front and sound defense. Air Force QB Liam Szarka (13.9 YPA, 7 total TDs) can keep it explosive, but Navy controls the game with patience and discipline.Pick: Navy

Boise is the Mountain West’s standard again. Their offense leads the league at 38.5 PPG and 520 YPG, balanced almost perfectly between pass (1,196) and run (884). QB Maddux Madsen has been efficient (1,129 yds, 9 TD, 1 INT), and RB Dylan Riley’s 7.5 YPC forces defenses to pick their poison.

Notre Dame, though, is another animal. Top 25, elite depth along the lines, and favored by nearly three touchdowns. This is Boise’s chance to prove staying power. They’ll compete, but South Bend is too tall a task.Pick: Notre Dame

The Rebels are unbeaten, but their resume is soft. They’ve leaned on takeaways (MW‑best 8 INTs) to mask a defense that gives up 428 YPG, second‑worst in the league. QB Anthony Colandrea has been steady (72% comp), and RB Jai’Den Thomas (8.7 YPC) is explosive.

Wyoming, as always, is rugged and stingy on defense (18.8 PPG allowed, 2nd in MW) but painfully limited on offense (16.8 PPG). At altitude, in chilly Laramie, style points won’t matter, but UNLV has the weapons to escape with its streak intact.Pick: UNLV

Reno is struggling badly: 15 points per game (last in the MW), just 339 YPG, and a defense that has been middling (380 allowed). QB Chubba Purdy is their top passer and rusher, which says it all about their limited options.

Fresno State isn’t flashy but sits top‑5 in almost every efficiency category (373 YPG, 32.8 PPG, defense 320 YPG allowed). QB E.J. Warner has been accurate, but turnover‑prone, and RB Bryson Donelson moves the chains consistently. Against an overmatched Wolf Pack, stability wins.Pick: Fresno State

Week 5: 5–2 (correct on Vanderbilt, New Mexico, Hawaii, Stanford, Boise State)Season: 33–13

Boise remains the league’s top act, UNLV is trying to prove substance matches its record, San Diego State might have the best defense in America, and New Mexico’s rebirth is the story nobody saw coming. October isn’t bringing clarity, just more chaos, which makes the Mountain West one of the nation’s most unpredictable leagues