Let’s start here: Paul Guenther isn’t the answer.
He was a short-term fix, not a long-term plan. When Zach Arnett left during spring ball, Guenther stepped in to steady the transition, and that’s all this was ever supposed to be: a bridge, not a blueprint.

But the results? Historically bad. Through seven games, UNLV is allowing 461 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play, numbers that rank near the bottom 10 nationally and among the worst defensive seasons in program history.

To put it in perspective:

Guenther’s resume is NFL-heavy, Bengals, Raiders, Vikings, where players spend 60 hours a week on install and film. That doesn’t translate to college, where you’re coaching speed, communication, and split-second reads. The system looks complicated, but it plays slow and slow gets you gashed in the Mountain West.

UNLV’s defense doesn’t just struggle; it actively negates what Mullen’s offense is building. The Rebels rank top-25 nationally in scoring offense, but bottom-15 in yards allowed. That imbalance is unsustainable, and it’s already showing cracks.

If Mullen wants to fix it, he has to bring in a true college defensive architect, someone who understands this level, recruits it, and can build a system around fast teaching, not NFL-style disguise.

The obvious name is Todd Grantham, Mullen’s longtime DC at Florida and Mississippi State. Grantham was just fired at Oklahoma State after a rough stretch, but the trust factor is there. If Mullen wants familiarity, that’s the move.

Otherwise, look at younger G5 coordinators like Tyson Summers (Colorado State) or Colin Hitschler (James Madison), both of whom have built tough, aggressive defenses that create turnovers without NFL-level complexity.

In my opinion, don’t rule out an internal option: Bam Amina.
He’s currently coaching linebackers, but his stock is rising. He’s respected, he teaches cleanly, and the players respond to him. Promoting Amina to co-DC or play-caller would instantly improve buy-in and communication, two things this defense desperately lacks.

Bottom line: Guenther’s defense isn’t just struggling, it’s one of the worst in program history. The numbers prove it, the tape reinforces it, and everyone inside the building knows it. Mullen can’t afford loyalty over results.

UNLV’s defensive issues start with what they’re asking players to do. The Rebels have been in zone coverage on roughly 70% of their snaps this season, and it’s been their weakest look statistically.

In man, UNLV forces a stop on about 46% of coverage snaps while allowing an explosive play just around 11% of the time.
In zone, the stop rate drops to about 33%, and explosive plays nearly double to 18%.

The difference is simple: when they line up and play, they compete. When they try to pattern-match and rotate, it breaks down.

Guenther’s defense is built around NFL-style pattern matching and disguised rotations. It requires experience, communication, and precision. That’s a tough fit for a college roster still learning how to play together.

Corners like Aamaris Brown and Quandarius Keyes are better in man, where they can press and challenge throws. Linebackers like Bam Amina and Marsel McDuffie react quicker when they’re not spot-dropping into space. The zone calls have created coverage voids and hesitation, two things you can’t have in a system that already plays light up front.

Would Simplifying Help?

Yes. Simplifying the coverage calls would help this defense play faster and cleaner. Fewer rotations. Fewer exchanges. Less thinking. The tradeoff is that you’ll give up some one-on-one shots, but that’s better than the steady bleed of 10-yard completions that extend every drive.

The scheme should fit the players, not the other way around, and right now, the numbers say the players fit man coverage, not Guenther’s version of zone.

Yeah, 100%. This is a calculated hold, not a missed opportunity.

The Mountain West made it worth staying with a bigger cut of exit fees, control of Vegas events, and a long-term promise to move league headquarters here. In return, UNLV signed a Grant of Rights that locks them in through 2032. It’s restrictive, but with one big exception: if a Power Four school calls, they can walk without penalty.

So instead of jumping into a shaky Pac-12 situation, UNLV took the short-term cash, stabilized their books, and now gets nearly a decade to build something sustainable — NIL, recruiting, donor backing, and consistent football under Dan Mullen. They’re betting that by the time the next realignment wave hits, they’ll be in a better position to move on their terms, not out of desperation.

The Big 12 still feels like the long-term play. The Pac-12 could reemerge depending on how the ACC mess shakes out. Either way, UNLV’s in no rush. The real focus now is proving they can sustain success on the field, on the court, and in the market.

Because at the end of the day, 2032 is a long way off. What matters is how much they invest between now and then if football keeps winning, if men’s basketball gets back to the tournament, and if the women’s team can finally make a run once they’re there.

That’s the real long game.

Absolutely.

If UNLV still had Fisher Camac, Jalen Catalon, Charles Correa, Tony Grimes, Mani Powell, and Jeremiah Vessel, this defense would be completely different, physically, mentally, and statistically.

Start with Mani Powell. He’s turned into a legitimate Big Ten linebacker at Purdue, with 65 tackles, a sack, and a forced fumble midway through the season. He’s the tone-setter Barry’s defense runs through. That same growth arc would’ve happened here. He’d be the guy in the middle, diagnosing, hitting, cleaning up mistakes.

Charles Correa has taken the same leap. From a rotational piece at UNLV to a full-time starter at Purdue with 59 tackles and 2 sacks. He’s stronger, more disciplined, and proving he can hold his own against Power Four fronts. That kind of presence on the edge would’ve changed the Rebels’ entire front seven.

Fisher Camac hasn’t had the same year at Virginia, just 1.5 sacks after posting 7.5 last season at UNLV, but his length and motor were exactly what this team lacks right now. The Rebels have struggled to create consistent pressure, and Camac’s ability to win off the edge would’ve forced more third-and-longs and fewer shootouts.

Jalen Catalon is another case of the spotlight dimming after leaving. At UNLV, he was a game-changer: 96 tackles, five picks, two sacks. At Missouri? Just 27 tackles and no turnovers. He’s gone from centerpiece to rotation piece, but his leadership and range would’ve stabilized this secondary in a big way.

Tony Grimes brought Power Four experience and length at the corner, exactly what UNLV’s been missing against taller, faster receivers. His presence would’ve allowed the staff to simplify coverages and trust man matchups more.

Jeremiah Vessel, though young, had real potential as a nickel or hybrid safety. At UAB, he’s already seeing snaps and contributing. At UNLV, he’d be part of a deep defensive backfield rotation that right now doesn’t exist.

Put all that together, and the Boise State game likely looks completely different. Those defensive stops that turned into long drives? They don’t happen. The explosive plays off missed tackles? Contained. UNLV’s defense doesn’t bend for four quarters — it punches back.

With that group intact, UNLV is probably sitting at 7-0, ranked inside the Top 25, and talked about as a legitimate CFP dark horse.

I haven’t followed UNLV men’s soccer closely this year, so I’m not going to over-analyze it. From the WAC sheets, though, it looks pretty straightforward: the defense is legit, the attack is light. In conference play, they’ve allowed just two goals in 4 matches (0.50 GAA), best in the WAC, and Hugo Lemos is sitting on .875 save% with two shutouts. On the flip side, UNLV is last in shots (31 in 4 WAC games, 7.75/g) and at four goals, so the chance creation/finishing hasn’t been there. They’re 1-0-3 in league (unbeaten, middle of the pack) with three games left before the WAC tournament. So my read, from a distance: defense-first, tough out, but ceiling depends on finding a bit more punch up front. Next year I’ll track them more closely.

My pick: C - somewhere in between A & B.

Fully healthy, this roster has top-4 potential in the Mountain West. With Emmanuel Stephen anchoring the rim, Ladji Dembele giving them toughness inside, and Myles Che healthy next to Dravyn Gibbs-Lawhorn, they have the size, athleticism, and defensive upside to finally win a game in the conference tournament that isn’t Air Force. That version probably wins 22-24 games and plays meaningful basketball in March, something this program hasn’t truly done in over a decade.

But that’s the best-case. Right now, the health picture and lack of continuity make the floor closer to 7th-9th in the league, around 15-17 wins, another up-and-down year where flashes of progress get buried under injuries and inconsistency. The Mountain West is too old and too physical to survive long stretches without your frontcourt intact, and UNLV still doesn’t have the continuity most of the top half does.

Realistically, it lands somewhere in between. I think they finish 5th or 6th, right around 19-21 wins. They’ll defend, they’ll compete, and they’ll look more connected as the season goes on, just not quite ready to make the jump yet. It’s not the breakthrough, but it’s the foundation for one.

The biggest difference this time is direction. Pastner’s group will play hard, guard, and rebound, which are traits that travel. They’ll drop games early, steal a few late, and by February, look like a team nobody wants to see in Vegas.

If you think football’s been a roller coaster, wait for Year 1 of Josh Pastner. The highs might not last, but for the first time in years, the climb feels real.