The Mountain West just posted record revenue: $92.8 million in 2024. Member distributions cleared $6 million per school. Boise State earned $8.7M. Another record is likely in 2025, with projections approaching $100 million.
And it might all mean nothing.
Because this league just lost 10 of its last 11 football champions. And unless it wakes up fast, the Mountain West will collapse under the weight of its outdated thinking.
A Conference Already Gutted
This isn’t hypothetical. Boise State, San Diego State, Fresno State, Colorado State, and Utah State are gone, signed, sealed, and moving to the rebuilt Pac-12 in 2026.
That’s not five random schools. That’s the backbone of the conference.
And the response? A desperate “Memorandum of Understanding” signed in September 2024 — a glorified Grant of Rights deal running through 2032, with $18 million in penalties, postseason forfeitures, and punitive damage threats for anyone who tries to leave.
It was billed as bold leadership.
It was just fear in writing.
Expansion That Solves Nothing
In a scramble to survive, the Mountain West added:
UTEP
Northern Illinois (football-only)
Grand Canyon (non-football)
UC Davis (non-football)
Full membership for Hawai‘i
That’s not rebuilding. That’s patchwork. The geographic footprint now stretches from Honolulu to DeKalb, with no flagship, national brands, or plan. The football product will lose half its viewers, and the basketball profile will collapse without SDSU, Boise, and Fresno.
There’s no Gonzaga. No Boise. No Top 25. No CFP threat.
Just a bunch of schools clinging to what’s left.
The Pac-12 Dream vs. Fiscal Reality
Don’t let the “Power Four” branding fool you — the new Pac-12 is not on solid ground.
Media revenue projections are all over the place, but the insiders say the truth: $7–10 million at best. Wazzu insiders think it lands even lower — maybe $6–8M per school. That’s barely better than what the MWC paid with Boise and SDSU.
The irony? Most of the Pac-12 additions are operating at a deficit. Boise is the only surplus program. Oregon State showed a surplus in 2023 — its first since 2013 — thanks to a university bailout and leftover Pac-12 cash.
And this was the “promised land?”
They didn’t leave for money. They went for marketing. The “Pac” name. A dream sold in boardrooms about Memphis, Tulane, and UNLV joining up. That’s what these schools bought into.
And now they’re stuck hoping it wasn’t a lie.
Boise Is Carrying the Whole Show
Boise State pulled over 1 million viewers for a late-season game against Nevada. They’ve been the CFP frontrunner from the G5 for two years. They’ve won the New Year’s Six bowls. They’ve had first-round NFL Draft picks.
This isn’t about market size. It’s about media value, and Boise has it.
They are the only true national brand in either the Mountain West or the new Pac-12. Not a blueblood, not Ohio State, but a known, respected commodity that media execs trust to deliver numbers.
If Boise tanks? The Pac-12’s credibility takes a hit.
And in the Mountain West? It’s All on UNLV Now.
The Mountain West bet big on Las Vegas — and it had to.
UNLV went 20–8 the past two years, reached back-to-back title games, and hired Dan Mullen at $3.5M per year, the most significant coaching contract in school history.
They play in Allegiant Stadium, train in the Fertitta Football Complex, and sit in a top-40 media market. They’re one of the few G5 schools with the infrastructure and visibility to grow into something more.
This is the bet: that UNLV becomes the next Boise.
And the league knows it. That’s why the MOU branded UNLV and Air Force as “flagships.” That’s why Vegas gets the league HQ, the basketball tournaments, and a larger cut of postseason distributions.
UNLV is the only hand left. If they bust, the league folds.
The NIL Era Is Already Leaving the MW Behind
The AAC launched RISE Ventures this spring, a $10 million league-wide NIL and commercial strategy arm. It’s a blueprint for survival in a world where schools now owe revenue sharing, back pay, and NIL infrastructure.
The Mountain West has… nothing. There is no central NIL plan, no media deal, and no vision.
With Boise and SDSU gone, the next TV deal could be as low as $2–4 million per school. The AAC is double that now. Unless something radical changes, the Mountain West will become a stepping stone, not a destination.
Final Thought: You Can’t Fear the Future
The MOU was built on fear — fear of more exits, fear of collapse, fear of change. But fear doesn’t build conferences. Vision does.
What the Mountain West needs now:
A media deal that sells brands, not geography
A league-wide NIL model like RISE Ventures
Bold, creative revenue streams: private equity, naming rights, revenue sharing
A path that rewards loyalty, not just punishes exit
And most of all?
UNLV needs to become the giant it was always supposed to be.
Because the league can’t afford to lose another Boise, and another one won’t be coming.