Three weeks remain in the Mountain West season, and the conference has delivered its annual dose of chaos. Boise State and San Diego State sit tied atop the league at 4-1, Hawai‘i remains firmly in the mix at 4-2, and four teams: UNLV, Fresno State, New Mexico, and Utah State lurk just one game back at 3-2.

Seven teams still have a realistic path to finish 6-2, and with cross-scheduling limiting head-to-head clarity, the Mountain West’s tiebreaker procedures are likely to decide who reaches the title game more than any single result.

Here’s where the race actually stands and how the rules apply.

The Mountain West hits the closing stretch with one of its tightest championship races in recent memory. Boise State and San Diego State hold the lead at 4-1, but neither has any breathing room with contenders still lined up behind them. Hawai‘i is right there at 4-2 and owns a significant result after handing SDSU one of its losses.

Behind that group is where the real traffic begins. UNLV, Fresno State, New Mexico, and Utah State are all sitting at 3-2, each capable of reaching 6-2, and each carrying a different mix of helpful wins and costly setbacks that will matter when the tiebreakers come into play. Even Wyoming and San José State, both at 2-3, can still shape the finish by knocking off teams above them.

Altogether, seven teams still have a path to a 6-2 record. With so many contenders avoiding each other on the schedule and with several of them already splitting the head-to-head matchups that do exist, the conference appears headed toward a messy finish that will require mini-round-robins, ranking formulas, and the full tiebreak system to sort out who grabs the two spots in the championship game.

Remaining Schedule: at San Diego State (Nov. 15), vs. Colorado State (Nov. 22), at Utah State (Nov. 28)

Boise State controls its own destiny. If the Broncos win out, they’re in. Everything starts with the trip to San Diego State on Nov. 15. That match-up game will likely decide who sits in the driver’s seat the rest of the way. Boise already owns head-to-head wins over UNLV and New Mexico, but a loss to Fresno State complicates any multi-team tie they fall into.

Remaining Schedule: vs. Boise State (Nov. 15), at San José State (Nov. 22), at New Mexico (Nov. 28)

San Diego State controls its own destiny, but it won’t be an easy one. The Aztecs open this final stretch with Boise State in a de facto first-place elimination game, then finish with back-to-back road trips, including a finale at New Mexico, a team still in the thick of the race. One added complication: Hawai‘i owns the head-to-head win over SDSU, a result that could sting if the Aztecs take another hit down the stretch.

They still have a direct route to the title game, but nothing about this path is simple.

Remaining Schedule: vs. Utah State (Nov. 15), vs. Hawai‘i (Nov. 21), at Nevada (Nov. 29)

UNLV still has a clean path to 6-2, but it requires winning out. The Rebels hold useful head-to-head wins over Wyoming and Air Force, yet losses to Boise State and, more importantly, New Mexico could hurt them in multi-team tiebreakers. First comes Utah State, a matchup that could eliminate the Aggies from the race entirely. Then comes the true gut check test in a rivalry game vs Hawai‘i on Nov. 21. Win that game, and UNLV stays firmly in the hunt; lose it, and the New Mexico defeat becomes even more deadly.

Remaining Schedule: vs. Wyoming (Nov. 15), vs. Utah State (Nov. 22), at San José State (Nov. 29)

Fresno State holds one of the most valuable tiebreak chips in the conference: a head-to-head win over Boise State. However, the Bulldogs also dropped their matchup with San Diego State, which cuts both ways depending on which team reaches 6-2. If Fresno runs the table, that win over Boise could elevate them in several multi-team tie scenarios, but the SDSU loss means they’re rooting hard for the Aztecs to stumble down the stretch.

Remaining Schedule: vs. Colorado State (Nov. 15), at Air Force (Nov. 22), vs. San Diego State (Nov. 28)

New Mexico is quietly one of the most dangerous swing teams in the race. If the Lobos win out, they would finish 6-2 with head-to-head victories over San Diego State, UNLV, and Utah State, which would be a powerful mini-round-robin profile. The drawback is their loss to Boise State, which eliminates any clean two-team tie with the Broncos. Their title game chances hinge on which other teams arrive at 6-2 and whether the final weekend sets up a multi-team logjam where their resume carries real weight.

Remaining Schedule: at UNLV (Nov. 21), vs. Wyoming (Nov. 29)

Hawai‘i’s route to 6-2 is straightforward: win in Las Vegas, then close strong at home. The Warriors already own one of the biggest wins of the season with their blowout of San Diego State, giving them a major tiebreak chip if they finish tied with the Aztecs. Their blemishes are losses to Fresno State and San José State, leaving their résumé uneven but still competitive in multi-team ties.

The real pivot comes on Nov. 21 at UNLV. A Hawai‘i win not only keeps the Warriors alive and it would all but knock the Rebels out of the race. Survive that, then beat Wyoming on Senior Night, and Hawai‘i walks into the tiebreak matrix with a fighting chance to grab a championship spot.

Remaining Schedule: at UNLV (Nov. 15), at Fresno State (Nov. 22), vs. Boise State (Nov. 28)

Utah State is still alive, but the road ahead is a brutal one. The Aggies already have conference losses to Hawai‘i and New Mexico, and now they close with three straight games against contenders. A loss at UNLV this weekend would likely eliminate them from the race entirely. Survive that, and they still have to win in Fresno before hosting Boise State on the final Friday of the regular season. No team chasing 6-2 faces a more brutal finishing stretch.

This is where most of the confusion starts. The Mountain West follows a strict, sequential tiebreaker system, and the process changes depending on whether two teams finish tied or if there are three or more teams tied.

In multi-team ties, the conference does not immediately turn to computers.
The mini-round-robin is always evaluated first. Because many of the contenders didn’t play each other this season, and several split key matchups, multi-team ties are likely to advance into deeper stages of the tiebreaker process.

With eight teams still in striking distance and so few head-to-head matchups left, a small cluster of games will end up deciding how the Mountain West sorts itself out down the stretch. These are the matchups that will truly drive the championship picture:

Once you strip away the impossible tiebreak paths and focus only on scenarios that actually align with head-to-head results, mini-round-robins, and the remaining schedules, the Mountain West championship race narrows to a smaller and far more realistic set of potential matchups.

Boise State vs. San Diego State
Still the most straightforward pairing. Their Nov. 15 showdown is essentially a semifinal for the No. 1 seed. The winner controls its path, and as long as that team avoids a second loss, this remains the clearest route to the title game.

Boise State vs. Fresno State
The next most realistic outcome. Fresno’s head-to-head win over Boise is one of the most powerful tiebreak chips available, especially in any multi-team cluster. If Fresno reaches 6–2 and San Diego State stumbles once more, the Bulldogs are well-positioned to rise above the pack.

San Diego State vs. Hawai‘i
A viable scenario if chaos hits. Hawai‘i finishes 6-2 by beating UNLV and Wyoming, and the Warriors already own a dominant win over SDSU. If the Aztecs beat Boise State but take a second loss elsewhere, a mini-round-robin could elevate Hawai‘i into the title game over teams with weaker head-to-head résumés.

Four- or Five-Team Tie at 6-2
The scenario no one wants, but the one the math points toward as increasingly plausible. A large cluster at 6-2 forces the conference to use the mini-round-robin first, then CFP/computer rankings if teams stay tied.
In that setup:

This is the clearest path for teams like Hawai‘i or New Mexico to sneak into the championship game.

Who’s on the outside looking in?
UNLV and Utah State: not because they can’t reach 6-2, but because their head-to-head profiles put them at a disadvantage in almost every realistic multi-team tiebreak setup. Their paths require a level of chaos that doesn’t align with the remaining schedule.

Bottom line:
While seven teams can mathematically get to 6-2, only a handful have tiebreak profiles strong enough to survive the mini-round-robin. Boise State and San Diego State remain the most likely pairing, with Fresno State next in line if either slips, and Hawai‘i/New Mexico lurking as chaos agents in a large tie.